English Channel Wind Update

[simonjk]

Morning,

To update anyone who may be venturing out today or Monday.

Our latest indication is for an increase in winds this (Sunday) afternoon and evening. Looking for a NE F5 possibly F6 and I still think there is a risk of gusts to F7 in mid channel.

For Monday the winds stay mainly NE at around F5, possibly F6 at first, but should ease to F4-F5 later.

As always, check the latest forecast before you leave. The forecast above is just to give you a heads up.

Cheers,
Simon

Simon Keeling
Managing Director

<hr width=100% size=1>Weather Consultancy Services Ltd
www.weatherweb.net & www.wcsmarine.com

 

[Cornishman]

Thanks for useful info.
What are you able to tell us about the new Low which at least two forecasting organisations say is due to be centred on the UK come Thursday? Is it a deep one with lots of wind and rain, or is it a shallow one with the usual misty drizzle and just a wind direction shift?

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[simonjk]

Hi Cornishman,

Mmmm, that low is a bit of a troublesome one.

The models are now in line, with the UK and US GFS both deepening the feature significantly by Thursday.

I think it will bring strongs winds and heavy rain to the south of the UK later this week, although a cold front moving south through Scotland will be introducing fresh winds and cooler conditions to the north.

One thing to bear in mind oveer the next few days is that the Atlantic hurricane season is going to get going again.

Models don't exactly handlke these systems well and so expect changes in the charts. Probably not for the system at the end of the week, but beyond that there must be question marks.

Hope that helps?

Simon

Simon Keeling


<hr width=100% size=1>Weather Consultancy Services Ltd
www.weatherweb.net & www.wcsmarine.com

 

[Chris_Robb]

I clipped this out of Metcheck's web site today,

Looking at next weeks GFS, you will see a rapidly deepening area of low pressure (sometimes we call this a bomb...) the reason? well, it's actually three areas of low pressure which get together within a space of 12 hours... let's call it speed-dating.

This is a rare occurance (only the UKMO 0.7° model will pick it up!), on most occasions, it would be two areas joining forces, but as the Atlantic steps up a gear this week, our last comment must be... anything is possible this Autumn.

They seem to be thinking that Thursday's Low could be a real stinker.

whatdoyathink




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[ronniewood]

Check out www.wetterzentrale.de for 9 day charts and www.xcweather.co.uk for current conditions.

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[simonjk]

Hi Chris,

I have to say I think Metcheck are wide of the mark here. A "bomb" depression is actually a term used to described both a rapidly moving and deepening depression, something of the other of the 1987 storm, you know, Mr Fishs' "..no hurricane."

The depression on Thursday will be deeper than we have seen for a while, of that there is no doubt, but it certainly won't be "a bomb".

The reason for the depth of the depression is that warm, moist air moving from the south will be meeting with a cold plunge of air from the north. As the two meet over the UK the depression will deepen further.

INteresting that the ensemble models (these are the models that run from about 10 different start positins) do not have the low as deep as the operational model from the UK or US.

Metcheck certainly need to be very careful using phrases such as these as they can be extremely misleading and could be dangerous.

Cheers,
Simon

Simon Keeling









<hr width=100% size=1>Weather Consultancy Services Ltd
www.wcsmarine.com
www.atlanticweather.co.uk

 

[BrendanS]

Don't the latest theories and modelling suggest that the Mr Fish's 'no hurricane' was caused by a 'sting jet'.
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[simonjk]

Hi Brendan,

Yes, Keith Browning has been doing some research into this and have developed the "Sting Jet" idea. This is basically a zone of very strong winds through a depression. Evaporation causes a stream of very strong winds to sink to the ground giving extraordinary speeds. However, the depression was a "bomb depression."

Previous post got me wondering about "bomb depressions" so did a quick web trawl to find a definition to back up my thoughts.

Definition is a deepening of 24 millibar or more in 24 hours and a pressure below 1000mb. Thursdays low doesn't do this, looks like 10mb in 24 hours.

See http://www.torresen.com/news/atwos/2001/ju/0620/ms.htm for more.

Hope this helps

Simon

Simon Keeling
Managing Director

<hr width=100% size=1>Weather Consultancy Services Ltd
www.wcsmarine.com
www.atlanticweather.co.uk

 

[plombier]

Were these not similar conditions to the cause of the 1979 Fastnet storm - several low pressures joining together?

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[Roberto]

Wasn't that from The Perfect Storm ? When the three forecasters are drawing three large circles on the map and all of a sudden look at each other and say "What if they collide ?"

wise george clooney had already foreseen that possibility like most american actors usually do

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[simonjk]

Yes, I think that Browning also researched the fastnet storm and found a similar occurence. I have to admit I haven't done a great deal of reading on this, so please don't quote me!

The fastnet was a classic example of a depression in a well known development area of the higher jet stream, namely its "left-exit".

Cheers,
Simon

<hr width=100% size=1>Weather Consultancy Services Ltd
www.wcsmarine.com
www.atlanticweather.co.uk

 

[Chris_Robb]

Metcheck are slightly sensational in their approach - always trying to be the first out with any particular event. Have been right many times - and probably wrong as many!

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[Rob_Webb]

So how was it after all?

I spent the weekend about as far away from the sea as you can get in this country - so what actually transpired in the channel? Any lucky buggers who did the crossing able to provide a post-match report?

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[Ohdrat]

Re: So how was it after all?

don't think what ever it is has transpired yet .. they're talking about Thur 28th Aug I think..

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[Chris_Robb]

XCweather is a usefull link - thanks

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