El Nino? - Time to postpone the Pacific crossing?

[BigART]

Just as we are getting everything sorted for our Pacific crossing- lockers filling up, charts arrived, plans made to transit the canal in Feb - the weather gurus have anounced that we are in an El Nino period....

Anyone got any experience of crossing the Pacific during an El Nino event? Is it worth delaying a year and spending more time in the Caribbean Sea?

Thanks,
Ruth

 

[Richard10002]

If that's the biggest decision you have to make... Aint life a bitch? <g>

 

[Sea Devil]

I am pretty certain it is not too big an issue -- Why not have a word with Herb on 12,359 --- he helped me as far as the Galapagos and knows more about these things than anybody else -

Michael

 

[Gerry]

We have decided to stay awhile longer in the Caribbean. El Nino can reverse the currents and trade winds, that makes a 28 day downwind passage from Galapagos to the Marquesas into a 42 day struggle- why risk it! This is supposed to be fun!

 

[alienzdive]

the struggle will be worth it,

It could also be known as "THE MILK SHAKE"

 

[josevern]

When do you think you will go now? We are also planning on doing the panama canal in Feb. Have heard that the San Blas islands are not to be missed.

 

[BigART]

We were planning on transiting the canal in Jan/Feb having visited Cuba. But I think we will keep an eye on how the 'El Nino' develops and postpone the decision. As I understand it, these things can be a two year event and next year may be even worse! Have sent a PM.

All the best.

Angus

 

[BigART]

Thank you for those reassuring thoughts. The information we have been able to find seems to indicate that it is a weak affair. We shall watch carefully!

As for talking to Herb, he seems such a busy chap and gets very cross if you don't do exactly what you are told!

Angus

 

[Gerry]

The San Blas are probably the finest cruising grounds in the Caribbean. The Eastern end is the least spoilt but also uncharted, so eyeball navigation on bright days is essential. You could spend months there.

2007 is not shaping up as a good year in the Pacific.

 

[dratsea]

Pacific crossing and El Nino 2012-13

I found this thread from 2006.

http://www.ybw.com/forums/showthread.php?t=102225&highlight=el+nino

Latest reports suggest moderate El Nino building:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

Anyone with experience from 2006 (or 2009 but only minor event) like to comment?

Many thanks,

J

 

[AndrewB]

It's easy to get cold feet about crossing the Pacific, and to succomb to the temptation of spending another year in the Caribbean. El Nino does have an effect on winds in the South Pacific, in that it weakens trades on the eastern side and extends the area of occasional westerlies associated with the South Pacific Convergence Zone on the western side, but the effect is not so severe as to make it a reason for abandoning a crossing in the normal sailing season.

The one and only time I've crossed the Pacific was in 2009 during a mild El Nino. We did have one or two periods of strongish south-westerly winds: at one point we and about 30 other yachts were held up in Suvarov for two weeks. There are worse places! The big event of the 2009 season though was the tsunami in Samoa which damaged many yachts in Pago-Pago.

Weather-wise, the worst part of the crossing, where many yachts get a pasting, is the passage from Tonga/Fiji to New Zealand. That's true of any year and certainly happened to us.

 

[dratsea]

Thanks Andrew,

FWIW: I am guessing during El Nino the ITCZ gets further south, roughy-toughy weather goes well S of 30S and this might be ideal excuse for Easter-Pitcairn-Gambier rather than Marquesas-N Tuamotus? Jimmy Cornell advises in El Nino to delay arrival in French Polynesia because of inceased risk of late hurricanes.

Met some serious Kiwi sailors crewing on delivery trip St Lucia to Nelson, non-stop except waiting for a couple of days for transit of canal so spent one night at anchor in Portobello. They have gone several times on both routes over Pacific and will set off in March for Chile, Antarctica and South Georgia next (Southern) summer. Made me feel like a wimp! However re Fiji-NZ: they agree, always get hammered, except in one of El Nino years they did it with no seas bigger than 2m so food for thought.

Main reason I was quoting a post from 2006 was in the hope that the OPs (any or all of them) could tell me what they actually found in 2006. I think the El Nino in 2009 was rather mild but any views from those who crossed E to W that year also gratefully received.

Thanks, in anticipation, to all,

Dratsea

 

[PhilipH]

Thanks Andrew,

FWIW: I am guessing during El Nino the ITCZ gets further south, roughy-toughy weather goes well S of 30S and this might be ideal excuse for Easter-Pitcairn-Gambier rather than Marquesas-N Tuamotus? Jimmy Cornell advises in El Nino to delay arrival in French Polynesia because of inceased risk of late hurricanes.

Met some serious Kiwi sailors crewing on delivery trip St Lucia to Nelson, non-stop except waiting for a couple of days for transit of canal so spent one night at anchor in Portobello. They have gone several times on both routes over Pacific and will set off in March for Chile, Antarctica and South Georgia next (Southern) summer. Made me feel like a wimp! However re Fiji-NZ: they agree, always get hammered, except in one of El Nino years they did it with no seas bigger than 2m so food for thought.

Main reason I was quoting a post from 2006 was in the hope that the OPs (any or all of them) could tell me what they actually found in 2006. I think the El Nino in 2009 was rather mild but any views from those who crossed E to W that year also gratefully received.

Thanks, in anticipation, to all,

Dratsea

Yes, it would be good to have news of previous experience. NOAA are forecasting "a weak-to-moderate El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2012-13" (9th August 2012). We are intending a Pacific cruise in 2013 (boat currently in Panama) - we had to postpone this year and unless conditions are seriously severe we will go: San Blas in January, Canal and Las Perlas in February and on to Galapagos ... but then that's not a plan because (to paraphrase Woody Allen) if you want to give your god(s) a good laugh, tell him/her/it/them your cruising plans.