Did they listen to a forecast???

[starboard]

Just copied the following from HMCG web site.......I often wonder with incidents like this how much thought is put into passage planning/weather forecasting.....The RAF own a yacht "Sirrius" that spends most of its time in Scotland, unsure tough if this is the same one??...........

Winds blowing up to Gale Force 8 in the Irish Sea have resulted in two yachts requiring assistance from Liverpool Coastguard this afternoon.

In the first incident, the 33ft yacht Sirius called for assistance at 16.15 pm whilst on passage from the Mull of Galloway to Holyhead after the crew became excessively fatigued. The Coastguard requested the RNLI All-Weather lifeboat from Peel to launch and the yacht was taken in tow to Peel from a position 4 miles north west of Peel.


Paul.

 

[Cornishman]

I seem to rememeber that an RNLI survey of casualties in about the year 2000 revealed that 80% had not consulted a weather forecast before setting out.
It is a requirement of SOLAS V to make a passage plan, not neccessarily written, whenever you leave your berth on even the shortest of trips across the harbour. As I am sure all contributors here know that the forecast is part of such a plan, it would be interesting to hear what action MCA might take in this case.

 

[Athene V30]

If the passage plan is not written down, how can anyone prove it was or was not made?

As (I think) we have a legal system based on innocent until proven guilty you would end up with a yes it was / no it wasn't argument like 6 year olds.

There again, perhaps they did listen to a forecast and believe they and their boat were up to the challenge.

My last solo trip (Calais to Brightlingsea) was in a 'Var becoming E becoming NE 2 to 3 occ 4 increasing 6 to 7'. I motored for 12 hours in a flat calm. I do not believe what is forecast and with the web you can see so many different forecasts for the same sea area that you can have whatever conditions you want.

 

[savageseadog]

I think the forecast was for F5-7, not really beyond the limits of a reasonable yacht and crew. If I were on a delivery it wouldn't have stopped me. I couldn't necessarily condemn the people on Sirius, things can after all turn out tougher than you think it's going to be, we all make mistakes.

 

[dom]

I think the question you make about passage planning with regards to weather conditions is a good one. From a personal perspective I find the Met Office forecasts for the purposes of passage planning pretty damn poor and without doubt one of the worst in Europe. That said Shipping Forecasts are fine for large vessels and the coastal forecasts are pretty good for dinghies motorboats close to shore. So what is missing?

1. Degree of certainty in the forecast. It is important to know what are the balance of probabilities are for say a sharply deepening depression with F8-9 winds against say say F5 to F6 as the most likely outcome. Weather is all about most probable outcomes and in my experience people understand the concept well.

2. Sea state descriptions such as, "occasionaly rough in the East", are inadequate. We need to know "significant wave heights" for both swell and waves as well as their direction. It is also useful to know by how much the largest expected wave might exceed significant wave height. In short a given wind strengths in different waters with different tides, fetches, preceeding weather systems will result in very different waters.

3. Alerts as to specific ares which might become a bit nasty.

Just for the sake of illustration Meteo France does all of this as standard. The Met have the infornmation - apart perhaps from sea conditions. It is a great shame that the Inshore Forecasts are still presented in the detail and format of days gone by. In my opinoion it is a wonderful piece of nostalgia but hardly appropriate to the day.

 

[savageseadog]

I should add that I was tryying to be very fair to those people. A 5 to 7 forecast doesn't sound too bad but had thay looked at the synoptic chart, as I did, they might not have bothered. It was quite clear that that low pressure was going to be bad, and condtions were probably going to be worse than forecast. I've seen this over and over again. You also have the problem in the Irish sea, of it's shallow nature and tides, extreme in some places, making the situation a fair bit worse.
I suppose knowledge comes through experience but I really fail to see why the forecast wind strength was so low.

 

[dom]

I grew up sailing on the Irish Sea too! I fully take your point but please consider the following comments you made:

"looked at the synoptic chart; "condtions were probably going to be worse than forecast; "You also have the problem in the Irish sea2; "You also have the problem in the Irish sea, of it's shallow nature and tides, extreme in some places, making the situation a fair bit worse".

Look I have almost replicted your whole post! It is full of information which I know from experience is sensible and accurate. Now let us say we were both sailing from Cherbourg to Guernsey in a F7 and also assume we had never been near that area before. In that case would we not be very glad to have the French Met do the work for us? Also the less experienced would benefit.

But even in the Irish Sea predictions of max squalls, details about waves and swell characteristics, areas of rough water and so on would probably be something we would both look at.

 

[Fin]

Just been checking, it's not the RAF yacht Sirius. I hope that the guys that got taken into Peel are ok.

 

[jamesjermain]

What worries me is the reason for calling out the lifeboat - crew fatigue. At face value this sounds like very poor skippering. 1) The crew may not have been up to the task from the beginning. 2) The skipper should have spotted the problem earlier and taken action. 3) Surely in that part of the world (with which, admittedly I am not familiar) there are ports of refuge he could have sought unaided.

The report says 'winds of up to Force 8'. This probably means a mean wind speed of 5-6 possibly 7 which could, of course, be nasty, specially when against the tide, but not beyond a well found boat and suitable crew. I'm sure many, even most people here have made long passages in these conditions.

 

[DeeGee]

Dont know the area either - was there enough sea-room to heave to? I am familiar with the fatigue problem though, since I get seasick very easily, and can imagine a situation where assistance could be very desirable. I have hove-to for a couple of hours in the past, just to let the seasickness ebb and regain some strength.

 

[whipper_snapper]

What was the wind direction ?

 

[moondancer]

I think a lot of this stems from the buying patterns of people entering sailing these days.

At boat shows I cannot remember when someone last described the reason for buying a new boat something like - 'I started with dinghy sailing, have learnt a bit about cruising from sailing my secondhand small yacht - and now I want something new and shiny and bigger'.

No. Without nearly without exception we hear, 'I have chartered a lovely 40 foot AWB in the lovely Med/BVIs a couple of times etc, done a week's RYA course in the solent and now want a new shiny boat in the UK'.

All very laudable, and I am sure it works for most people, but I am convinced that it is one of the causes of this sort of thing. I also think it is one of the reasons why boat usage is reckoned to average less than 9 times per year.

 

[Koeketiene]

[ QUOTE ]
I also think it is one of the reasons why boat usage is reckoned to average less than 9 times per year.

[/ QUOTE ]

And why the marinas are always full - driving up price.

Two winters ago, we kept previous boat in Shotley.
One December Saturday called lock to lock out.
Reply: Saw your car arrive - all ready for you.
When we were locking out I asked if he knew all boat owners' cars.
Just a handful, he said, in winter there's only about 5 or 6 going out on a regular basis.
Shotley's got a couple of hundred boats.

 

[marksaab]

Hi All
Just reading latest posts with a view to starting a little one of my own but I think I'll add a bit to this one instead! Just back from West Mersea after spending sat night on my lovely new (well new to me!) 1975 Seamaster 23 sailer, didnt want to take her out as I have no sailing experience in the area yet, but what a fantastic weekend, except the weather of course /forums/images/graemlins/shocked.gif
fell asleep with the wind and waves and woke up to the sound of Curlews(?) and gulls, sat in the cockpit reading "Magic of the Swatchways" of course!
To get to the point, I want to sail for longer in the season but my insurance GJW specifically states sailing up to end Oct then no more till end March!! Is this the norm?

To refer to earlier posts it stagers me how many boats really do go nowhere...for years!! I bought my boat after a weeks sailing holiday, comp crew etc and on and off dingy sailing since Sea Cadet days, I wanted something safe easy and good to learn on and if I really get it wrong I wont get too upset. Wont be doing any real sailing till start of August, a local chap has offered to give me some pointers (for a fee of course).
Views on sailing after October welcome.

cheers, Mark

 

[Koeketiene]

Might have something to do with the size of your boat?

Also with GJW - got "in commission 12 months"

 

[marksaab]

Could be, I do intend carrying out a good refit over Winter but I wasnt planning on spending 5 months doing it! I have a pet theory that once a boat is out of the water over a certain amount of time its chances of ever sailing again reduce dramatically! PS She is on a swinging mooring..maybe thats it?

 

[Koeketiene]

We're on a swinging mooring too (in summer APR-OCT).
GJW do insist on pontoon berth in winter - maybe that's it.

We leave the boat in all year, every year.
Boat sails badly on dry land.

Haul out maybe one winter in 3 or 4 to dry out for a bit & maintenance.

 

[marksaab]

So looks like I have to find a pontoon! The refit work (sprucing up cabin, new standing rigging, new electrics) can all be done whilst afloat.

Thanks for feedback! Happy Sailing, Mark

 

[Cornishman]

[ QUOTE ]
If the passage plan is not written down, how can anyone prove it was or was not made?

[/ QUOTE ]

To answer your question in as few words as possible - by simple questioning should it become necessary.

e.g. "what was the direction and strength of the tidal stream at the time?" or,
"What time was High Water that afternoon at your port of destination"
etc etc
These answers might be found in the yacht's log without appearing in any formally written down passage plan, especially if you were making only a short trip, say from Plymouth around to the Yealm, a matter of only a few miles and less than hour under normal circumstances.
You would look pretty damn silly if you foundered on the Yealm Bar because you had not bothered to check the tides but a written passage plan would not be deemed necessary.
It is surprising how many folk don't do such simple things as listening to some form of weather forecast before setting out.

 

[misterg]

[ QUOTE ]
What was the wind direction ?

[/ QUOTE ]

There was another incident in roughly the same area at 18:00 the same day. Wind reported as SSW 6-7 with 3m seas. (Port St Mary Lifeboat site).

I saw the original report on the MCGA site, and I have to say that I raised my eyebrows. Reading the lifeboat report about the second incident (quoted below), I'm not so surprised.

I can only assume that those in the first incident were north of Peel, and struggling to make to windward. Still, they were only 4 miles away. Peel breakwater looks like it would offer some shelter from these conditions, but I've never been there. It looks like there's a good few hundred miles of fetch from the SSW, too.

Beyond my experience.

Andy

[ QUOTE ]
18:05 BST: Relief lifeboat "Macquarie" launched to assist an injured yachtswoman on the Norwegian yacht "Mou", some 12 miles south of Port St Mary. The 34 foot long yacht had a crew of and one had been knocked out after the yacht had been hit by a large sea. Rescue helicopter R122 from RAF Valley also tasked to assist. The Lifeboat arrived on scene at 18:55 BST. The helicopter crew had already put its winchman down to the yacht and the injured person was conscious but concussed. However the other yachtsman was struggling to handle the yacht and to reduce sail to enable the winchman and injured person to be airlifted off. The lifeboat was asked to run in and transfer a crewman across; then to do so again and transfer the winchman and injured person on to the lifeboat (and then perform the lift by the helicopter). However due to the rough seas it was decided that once a lifeboatman had successfully transferred to the yacht, the yacht could be prepared for a transfer using high line winching. At 19:25 BST the casualty was finally airlifted and flown to Douglas hospital. The lifeboat and the yacht were now some 6.5 miles from Port St Mary and with a second Norwegian yacht also in company, passage was made for harbour. Both yachts arrived safely an hour later. Weather SSW 6-7, rain showers, seas 3 metres. (Photographs to follow)

[/ QUOTE ]