simonjk
Well-known member
Hi all,
Thought that some of you might find this useful/interesting. I've written it for Weatheronline , but thought it useful to post here. Just a few observations from my many years of helping sailors cross the Atlantic. There are a couple of commercial bits in it, but don't think it is too over the top.
Best wishes,
Simon
After the Summer, the Atlantic Sailing Door Opens
This time of year is always exciting for us forecasters. As the summer draws to a close, the Atlantic season kicks in and we get ready to provide sailors with forecasts for their magnificent trip across the Atlantic.
For some we'll be confirmation of forecast already attained, but for others we will be a real shoulder to lean on. Often, we are the main source of daily emails (apart from families) and we find Atlantic sailors confiding in us their hopes and concerns for the crossing, very often feelings they cannot express to loved ones back ashore.
So, what do we do? Well, in September and October many boats are crossing from the UK, across the Bay of Biscay and down to La Coruna. It's then a passage to southern Portugal where there is often a stop off and a wait for the NE trade winds to kick in. Here boats meet up with colleagues who have made the trip through the Straits of Gibraltar. The 'pack' then head southwards towards the Canaries in time (hopefully) for the Atlantic weather window to open up in November.
Prior to departure, perhaps uo tp 2-weeks we will be issuing departure planning forecasts, spotting the weather windows and trying to spot opportunities for the sailors to beging their adventures.
Nearer the time of departure it's 5-day forecasts that become the norm, usually via email. These consist of a detailed synopsis of currently conditions, any advice that we can give about where the best winds might be found and then a detailed forecast for the next 5-days including information about wind direction and speed, sea state, weather and visibility. I always stress that we don't route, that's up to the individual, but we will give advice.
I love forecasting for this route as it is so exciting. The best part is waiting for the weather window to arrive, spotting it in advance and then...hey presto! the trade winds kick in and off we go. But what has my experience taught me about how sailors should approach the Atlantic crossing? If you have crossed the Atlantic before, this is teaching granny to suck eggs, but if you are new to it, here's the benefit of my experience of Atlantic forecasting over the past 10-years.
A familiar pattern is followed. The crossing of the Bay of Biscay or passage through the Straits is dealt with carefully by tentative crews. Once in the Canaries the real excitement takes hold. Crews look at the forecasts and off they go. Typically the winds will be from the NE at around force 4 to force 6. Now, this is where the first lesson comes in; a force 6 in the Atlantic is like a force 6 nowhere else, especially at night. We invariably get reports back saying that winds on the first night were 'way above the forecast'. Crews often say winds got to 50kts, when actually 25kts was more like it, although it hasn't been experience in such a raw fashion before. Seas are choppy and it can be quite bumpy as you head away from the Islands.
Gradually, as the crossing progresses, the weather reports become more lucid and the crossing settles into an enjoyable experience. The sea swill ease and with any luck, you'll be into an E-ENE at force 4 to force 6.
Of course, this is still hurricane season and so we'll be watching out for those. Tropical waves will be moving westwards, bringing squalls and stronger winds. It's these waves which turn to hurricane and tropical storms, so it is important to monitor the development of such features.
And, while I mention squalls a word about these. At night, the thunderstorms and showers tend to become enhanced and the clouds grow. This means that the most vicious storms in the Atlantic often occur at night, just when you don't want them. Gusts to 60kts are not unusual, so if the warning is there, be prepared.
I’m often asked what weather equipment should a sailor take on board? Firstly, make sure you have a good barometer. A marine barograph is ideal as this will show pressure rises and falls over a period of time, ideal for making your own predictions as to whether the weather is set to improve or worsen.
Secondly, have radio weather fax enabled and wired to your laptop. This is invaluable as it will show you graphically where fronts are and how they are forecast to move. It can highlight hurricanes, tropical storms, tropical waves and other important features, critical to your sailing enjoyment and possibly your safety. It also means that when you receive forecasts from us (or anyone else), you’ll know which low, high etc… is being described in the general synopsis.
Thirdly, GRIB forecasts are handy, but remember they are based purely on the output from computer models. These models smooth wind speeds and directions and will not show you gusts. This is where the value added forecasts we provide come in, as a human forecaster has assessed the charts and can adjust the forecast accordingly. Having said that, GRIB data is useful as a general guide to conditions in the days ahead.
And finally, make sure you read up about Atlantic weather conditions before you leave. Familiarise yourself with how the climatology of the Atlantic at this time of year works and the influences it has on the weather of the area. Follow the weather in the weeks leading up to your passage and then monitor how active the hurricane and tropical storm seasons are. Imagine and plan how you would cope if you were caught in a tropical storm or hurricane and make sure you know what to do in such a situation.
Above all, be prepared!
Eventually you will arrive in the Caribbean in time for a drink of rum and a jolly good shower! It's great fun and we get reports back every year from crews who then just want to go on an on. We often end up providing weather advice for sailors over 12 months or so as they sail on around the World.
Happy Sailing!
Simon Keeling
Thought that some of you might find this useful/interesting. I've written it for Weatheronline , but thought it useful to post here. Just a few observations from my many years of helping sailors cross the Atlantic. There are a couple of commercial bits in it, but don't think it is too over the top.
Best wishes,
Simon
After the Summer, the Atlantic Sailing Door Opens
This time of year is always exciting for us forecasters. As the summer draws to a close, the Atlantic season kicks in and we get ready to provide sailors with forecasts for their magnificent trip across the Atlantic.
For some we'll be confirmation of forecast already attained, but for others we will be a real shoulder to lean on. Often, we are the main source of daily emails (apart from families) and we find Atlantic sailors confiding in us their hopes and concerns for the crossing, very often feelings they cannot express to loved ones back ashore.
So, what do we do? Well, in September and October many boats are crossing from the UK, across the Bay of Biscay and down to La Coruna. It's then a passage to southern Portugal where there is often a stop off and a wait for the NE trade winds to kick in. Here boats meet up with colleagues who have made the trip through the Straits of Gibraltar. The 'pack' then head southwards towards the Canaries in time (hopefully) for the Atlantic weather window to open up in November.
Prior to departure, perhaps uo tp 2-weeks we will be issuing departure planning forecasts, spotting the weather windows and trying to spot opportunities for the sailors to beging their adventures.
Nearer the time of departure it's 5-day forecasts that become the norm, usually via email. These consist of a detailed synopsis of currently conditions, any advice that we can give about where the best winds might be found and then a detailed forecast for the next 5-days including information about wind direction and speed, sea state, weather and visibility. I always stress that we don't route, that's up to the individual, but we will give advice.
I love forecasting for this route as it is so exciting. The best part is waiting for the weather window to arrive, spotting it in advance and then...hey presto! the trade winds kick in and off we go. But what has my experience taught me about how sailors should approach the Atlantic crossing? If you have crossed the Atlantic before, this is teaching granny to suck eggs, but if you are new to it, here's the benefit of my experience of Atlantic forecasting over the past 10-years.
A familiar pattern is followed. The crossing of the Bay of Biscay or passage through the Straits is dealt with carefully by tentative crews. Once in the Canaries the real excitement takes hold. Crews look at the forecasts and off they go. Typically the winds will be from the NE at around force 4 to force 6. Now, this is where the first lesson comes in; a force 6 in the Atlantic is like a force 6 nowhere else, especially at night. We invariably get reports back saying that winds on the first night were 'way above the forecast'. Crews often say winds got to 50kts, when actually 25kts was more like it, although it hasn't been experience in such a raw fashion before. Seas are choppy and it can be quite bumpy as you head away from the Islands.
Gradually, as the crossing progresses, the weather reports become more lucid and the crossing settles into an enjoyable experience. The sea swill ease and with any luck, you'll be into an E-ENE at force 4 to force 6.
Of course, this is still hurricane season and so we'll be watching out for those. Tropical waves will be moving westwards, bringing squalls and stronger winds. It's these waves which turn to hurricane and tropical storms, so it is important to monitor the development of such features.
And, while I mention squalls a word about these. At night, the thunderstorms and showers tend to become enhanced and the clouds grow. This means that the most vicious storms in the Atlantic often occur at night, just when you don't want them. Gusts to 60kts are not unusual, so if the warning is there, be prepared.
I’m often asked what weather equipment should a sailor take on board? Firstly, make sure you have a good barometer. A marine barograph is ideal as this will show pressure rises and falls over a period of time, ideal for making your own predictions as to whether the weather is set to improve or worsen.
Secondly, have radio weather fax enabled and wired to your laptop. This is invaluable as it will show you graphically where fronts are and how they are forecast to move. It can highlight hurricanes, tropical storms, tropical waves and other important features, critical to your sailing enjoyment and possibly your safety. It also means that when you receive forecasts from us (or anyone else), you’ll know which low, high etc… is being described in the general synopsis.
Thirdly, GRIB forecasts are handy, but remember they are based purely on the output from computer models. These models smooth wind speeds and directions and will not show you gusts. This is where the value added forecasts we provide come in, as a human forecaster has assessed the charts and can adjust the forecast accordingly. Having said that, GRIB data is useful as a general guide to conditions in the days ahead.
And finally, make sure you read up about Atlantic weather conditions before you leave. Familiarise yourself with how the climatology of the Atlantic at this time of year works and the influences it has on the weather of the area. Follow the weather in the weeks leading up to your passage and then monitor how active the hurricane and tropical storm seasons are. Imagine and plan how you would cope if you were caught in a tropical storm or hurricane and make sure you know what to do in such a situation.
Above all, be prepared!
Eventually you will arrive in the Caribbean in time for a drink of rum and a jolly good shower! It's great fun and we get reports back every year from crews who then just want to go on an on. We often end up providing weather advice for sailors over 12 months or so as they sail on around the World.
Happy Sailing!
Simon Keeling
