confused weather

[Phoenix of Hamble]

Gosh isn't this wekend's weather a confused picture.... the forecast seems to be changing pretty much completely every 12 hours...... is the high over western France coming in or isn't it.... will the front pass over southern england or not..... sigh....

The forecast for 'the Wash to Nth Foreland' can't decide if it's going to be Variable 3 or NW 5 to 6 and seems to alternate between the two at each new forecast!

 

[oldharry]

... and I bet it will not do either! The problem for forecasters is that they have to attempt to predict the unpredictable! At best they can take a given set of weather data, decide from past experience and data the ways in which the weather might develop. They then have to decide which is the most likely outcome, and present that as a forecast. The most significant figure in any weather forecast - and you will rarely see it publicised - is the 'Confidence percentage' - the measure of how certain the forecaster is that things will work out as he predicts.

One could add a new weather saying: 'Changeable weather - low pressure: changeable forecast - low confidence'

 

[Lakesailor]

I just walked across to the water's edge and looked at the lake. Sunny, fresh breeze, Westerly F2/3.
Ooh! I'm off for a sail, I thought.
I was talking to a fisherman and in 10 minutes the sun had gone, wind shifted North and picked up to F4/5 with gusts above that.
Ooh! sod that I thought, it's a bit chilly now.

We've had very unpredictable weather this year, so the forecasters can't take all the blame.

 

[Evadne]

I used to be a met-man (but never graduated to forecaster) so they have my sympathy. Predicting a chaotic system ain't easy. The trouble is, some people think they make it rain and blow a hooley on purpose.....