Bird Flu

[Shakey]

Have been reading and hearing more and more recently about this Avian Flu that exists in the Far East.

There has been cases in the past of animal-to-human transmission. It appears that there has now been an isolated case of human-to-human transmission.

Apparently, the experts estimate this flu has a mortality rate of 70%.

With flu viruses, if you catch it you are contagious before you show signs and symptoms.

If this virus starts to spread amongst the human population, the results would be quick and catastrophic thanks to air travel.

There is no vaccine, though there is an anti-virus drug that is effective against it. Some countries (eg Australia) have already started to stockpile this drug.

There are limited supplies available in Britain, but the government is making no effort to secure any more.

And this is where I get angry.

Flu epidemics have happened in the past, and history tells us we're overdue another one. Unlike those stupid adverts off the telly which tell us that a dose of Lemon Drink Max Strength Plus will get you back to work in a day, a real bout of flu can kill. In 1918, more American soldiers had died of flu than taking part in their belated entry into WW1!

In this case, the experts are predicting a 70% mortality rate and our government seems to be taking no preventative steps whatsoever.

Why is this? Why did this government spend billions of our taxes and hundreds of our servicemen's lives on looking for weaponised anthrax, mustard gas, nerve agents etc. in a country that is of no geo-political importance to the UK yet when nature has a real WMD waiting up its sleeve it does nothing?

If this virus acquires the widespread ability to cross infect humans the epidemiologists say a worst case scenario could cost the UK 500 000 lives. Most of these would be young adults as the illness strikes those more vehemently. The social and economic damage would be terrible.

Even if the virus did not reach such terrible proportions, can you imagine the NHS coping with 'only' 50 000 casualties?

I know this sounds like doom-mongering, but this virus has achieved human-to-human transmission. It may do so again and the fact that this government of ours is making no attempt whatsoever to lessen any potential blow when it's prepared to waste billions of pounds on various and diverse useless enterprises (Millenium Dome, anyone?) makes me so angry. /forums/images/graemlins/mad.gif

Rant over.

 

[BobOwen]

Having just read your initial reply to Ensegalare and the above post, might I suggest some Horlicks and an early night may help ?

 

[Peppermint]

Re:Welcome to the real world

Not with a bang but with a snuffle. While the world worries about pollution, meteor strikes and "who's looking at who Jimmy", anyone who works in a path lab sees the threat of microbes, bugs, germs or whatever as the real issue.

To say that the governments are doing nothing isn't quite right. Monitoring takes place throughout the Far East. Hospitals and Local Authorities run excercises & models of exactly what you fear. They are aware, they are kind of ready. But for what?

Any Flu tends to be a bit variable. Until it gets started it's hard to pin down the character of the thing so that very specific vaccines can be made. The real question will be "Can we get the vaccines made before the casualties reach large numbers". People in the know really doubt it.

My mate "The Chief" is married to a senior microbiologist who works at a big hospital near Heathrow. Airports will be a serious problem in the event of an outbreak, so they are very alert. For them to pick up patients with something that scares them is a regular happening. Dinner party conversation at their house no longer includes the phrase "how was your day at work Ann?"

 

[beancounter]

Re:Welcome to the real world

Can confirm that some attempts at readiness take place, as the memsahib works for the regional emergency planning team at the Health Protection Agency. Late last year one of their exercises covered such an outbreak.

 

[celandine]

I agree with Shakey on this. It is only by lucky chance that the AIDS virus, which quite suddenly appeared from nowhere, was not as easily spread as the cold/flu viruses. If it had happened to evolve this way, and was therefore spreadable by mere coughs and sneezes, then you could say that the number world wide infected with AIDS would be similar to the number of people who have had a cold in the last 20 years - scary.
I say forget meteorite strikes: the absence of any really effective measures against viruses is the greatest threat we face. Enormous resourses need to be deployed in order to find something as effective against viruses as anti-biotics are against bacteria. Otherwise it's only a matter of time before 1918 comes round again.

Mick

 

[Rowana]

Perhaps we need an epidemic every now and again to thin out the population. It used to be said that we needed a good war every so often for the same purpose, but since we haven't had one for the last 60 years, this will do nicely.

Just think. If we kill off a few million peeps round the world, there will be less people breathing oxygen, poluting the world, using up resources Etc, Etc.

If you believe in God, Allah or whatever, then perhaps this is in his great plan.

I'm not saying for one moment that this is the case, but it's just another way of looking at things.

I'm a devout coward, by the way /forums/images/graemlins/frown.gif /forums/images/graemlins/frown.gif

 

[Peppermint]

Re: HMMMM!

Can't say I'd fancy watching the kids die or me old mum. Not even to save the world. I'm no more keen on going me self just yet. There's nothing to be done about it though.

Your right in one way though. There is no real issue threatening the planet other than over population.