BBCWeather Forecast

[PaulF]

I know this is bit repetitive BUT, I have been listening on Five live radio to the prediction of a grade 5 Hurricane is heading for Jamica. It has apparently flattened a huge amount of Grenada with 150mph winds. So I just checked the BBC world weather web service, and looking at all 11 towns in Jamaica listed on the web site I can find no wind strenghth greater than 33 mph in the next 5 days. What am I missing? Either the site is utter fiction, or maybe they just ignore hurricanes as they are out of the ordinary? I had looked at Florida a few days ago when the last hurricane was going through and noticed similar lack of accuracy, which means it is a waste of time to refer to the site. Indeed it could be very serious if one accepted the site as being accurate.

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[BrendanS]

It's the same with any forecasting or even internet searching. The real skill is using sites appropriate to the information you want. Where do the BBC take weather feeds from - predominantly UK and Europe. If you want weather forecasts for Jamaica, don't use BBC, or even the wonderful Theyr.net. Take it from sources who have accurate information for that area, with suitable feeds. The BBC are not going to pay for really accurate feeds from all over the world, it would cost a fortune, so you either learn to use local sites, and learn which are accurate, same as we do in the UK, or you pay someone to do that work for you.

Personally, I'd take good local sites over general sites any time, and the same for telephone, fax or any other access

There are a huge number of sites available on the internet which do give fantastic information on a global scale, but you have to do the interpretation and analysis for yourself. Anything from models (which is what the professionals use) through grib files which most routing or weather analysis packages can use, to basic isobaric charts, which you can learn to interpret with only a little tuition

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[PaulF]

Hi Brendan,

I have taken what you said on board, but my point was that the BBC were giving out warnings of a grade 5 hurricane yet their own web site was giving contrary info. It was not that the BBC had not got the information, they just had not bothered to update the website. If my experience last week was anything to go by the site is a waste of time.

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[BrendanS]

You choose your websites, then go by the forecasts they give.

Me, wouldn't touch BBC with a barge pole. They pay commerical rates for what they show, and their forecasts don't touch others that many here can name for accuracy. They pay for general forecasts for the general public.

If they paid more, they'd get better forecasts, but they are not a forecasting site, so ignore them, and go for sites which give accurate info. There are plenty of those to argue over

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[Gludy]

If you print barometric charts for the weekend every day of the week so you end up with say 5 forecasts for Saturday from the same source - the difference between each can be large - the resultant wind calculations can vary from a f2 to a f6 for the same day.
I agree with all you say about local info but would add that even with that, you have to filter and sift it to come up with your own view of the weather. I do this every week and I am slowly improving but i can never accept a 5 day forecast at face value.
As you say the BBC gives just a general picture for the general public - they even got the hurricane wrong, (or was it ITV?) when it hit southern UK a number of years back.

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[BrendanS]

That wasn't a hurricane though, and it took them years of research to work out why it happened. In simple terms, a high level wind was directed downwards, and they now have mathematical models to show how it happened.

It took them years to work this out in hindsight, and I'm not sure many websites will show this, it's more talking to weather forecasters. Fascinating to geeks, a hurricane to people who's cars got slam dunked by falling trees in the storm (and here I talk from experience) We lived by candles for 2 days, and what a wonderful 2 days it was!

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[reginaldon]

If that wasn't a hurricane you obviously were not in Folkestone. I informed the CG that the Hengist was being blown towards the Warren

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[Sunnyseeker]

BBC is a bit limited try this one, no idea how to make it a link, but we found this site was very good....doesn't look nice out there...
http://www.weatheronline.com/tropical/index.html

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[PaulF]

Hi there, many thanks for the additional input. I will consult on a wider basis in future. A couple of people had commented , in general terms that the BBC was was pretty good for UK, it just seemed reasonable to check it for the recent , and current hurricanes, Florida for example.
My comment is that the BBC site was very innacurate, AND therefore totally missleading. This despite the fact that they had the true and accurate info in their possesion. IMHO if they do not have the facilities to get it ANYWHERE near right they should remove the information. This is not the diference between an F2 and F5, but the difference between 33mph and 150mph.

BBC always make a big deal of how squeaky clean they are. If they perform like this is raises doubts.

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[KevB]

At a guess, the reason for the current "fair" weather forecast for Jamaica is because it is done predominately by computer modelling using information fairly local to that area. Guessing again I imagine the hurricane is still a fair distance from Jamaica therefore not currently registering on the local weather stations.

For South coast England I have always found the Beeb to be at least as accurate as the rest.

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[PaulF]

Hi, Yes I also thought about the forward computerised type of forcast, but they cant say they didnt know about it as we were told of the hurricane by the BBC at least 24 hours back. I have e-mailed the BBC and will post their response in due course. Just for the hell of it, todays BBC forecast displays a nice bright sunshine day, but it is for London. It has been wet all morning on Hants S Coast but then it would today as the Boat show opens!

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[BrendanS]

Why blame the BBC? They might know about the hurricane, but the forecast is supplied by the Met Office. The BBC are broadcasters, not meteorologists. If the BBC opt for an automated forecasting system for their website, that is what they will receive, and no one is going to sit there changing bits of the automated feed based on news reports. Completely unrealistic

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[PaulF]

No Brendan, I do not accept that for a moment. Yes the BBC pay a commercial rate for a service from the met office. But this is not a case of information not being available, this is a 5 day forecast updated on a daily basis. However the info is so innacurate as to be a waste of time and possibly seriously missleading.

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[ArthurWood]

Hurricanes don't form suddenly - tornadoes do.

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[BarryH]

One of the better weather sites that I use is online weather.com. Not the most detailed site going but gives a fairly accurate forecast for specific regions. For eg. I keep an eye on it for the weekend weather to see if its worth going the 120 miles to the boat. Its updated every 3 hrs on average and only ever let me doen once.

Obviously if you want all the weather charts etc etc, then you can look around the site for more in depth info. But for what I use it for it beats most hands down.

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