another duff forecast?

fisherman

fisherman

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Tonights inshore gives no more than 7, and at the moment seven stones is 5 kts.
Far cry from the violent storm eleven forecast for tomorrow two days ago.
 
Bramble is currently showing F5 gusting 6 and Chichester F6 gusting 7 - expect there's more to come, last forecast I saw was peaking in the early hours
 
The thing is I live by these forecasts day in day out, and I get the feeling that they consistently overestimate wind strength. Is it because computer modelling has been overtaken by climate change?

It doesn't much matter if we're talking about force 6/7 rather than 8/10, but when we get 3/4 not 6/7 I get peed off. In any case the synopsis is not to be fooled with at the moment for my job.
 
Shipping forecast, Plymouth: gale warning, 1549: 'severe gale 9 now backed S8' Seven stones shows max 36 kts at 1200, and 32kts at 1500. No show of such conditions elsewhere either. Certainly no such wind on the Lizard today.
 
It would not have been prudent for me to go to sea today, given the forecast. Still flat calm here, but Seven Stones is showing 22kts. I doubt it will get bad enough to send us back in, had we gone.

As you say, crying wolf, but a forecast storm 11 can't just disappear into nothing. Can it?
 
No

all the professional metmen got such a hammering after the Sydney-Hobart that they all now tend to forecast the top quartile not the mean.

So you can expect actual windspeeds of about 60-70% of those forecast.

However reading the isobars is not an exact science.
 
Just take a good look at the Atlantic charts for the next few days and make your own mind up............I know where I would rather be and it wouldnt be hauling pots!!!!!!!!!! DYOR

Paul.
 
Yes, which is why I could have done with a six hour window today, but put off by the forecast. 62107 is 27kts now. Would you like to take a bet on what monday actually brings?
 
The problem with the met office and all predicting these stronger winds and then them not coming, we will lose confidence in their prediction and start to ignore it, which in itself might not be a wise move and could bite us one day.

Personally, I have lost confidence in them and have started to ignore some of it to some extent.
 
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Yes, which is why I could have done with a six hour window today, but put off by the forecast. 62107 is 27kts now. Would you like to take a bet on what monday actually brings?

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A tad more than 27kts !!

Paul.
 
I'll give anyone a tenner (one bet only) to their charity of choice if the Seven Stones shows four readings of more than 40kts during monday. Expect a tenner for the RNMDSF if it don't!
 
Blowing steady 40kts and gusting 55kts here at Troon Marina most of the evening. Dont know about Seven Stones getting 40kts Monday but me thinks West of Scotland to get another good old pasting till Wednesday at least!!

Paul.
 
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