All over the place!

[nicho]

How do you read the forecast for the Solent area for today and tomorrow?? ITV teletext for South Coast regions (up to 2 miles offshore), forecasts winds of 5/7, to gale force 8 later, i.e gales from 1800 today to 0600 tomorrow. Weatherweb on line seems to agree, forecasting 21 knots by noon today, up to 32kts by midnight and 37 knots by 06.00 tomorrow (with a pressure of 990mb).

However, the 1-5 day forecast on the SAME Weatherweb site, shows winds in the Solent of only 15 kts, which also seems to concur with various other forecasting sites!!

So which is it, 25/37 knots, or 10/15knots?? How do you read it??. (The synoptics are pretty complex with 3 low pressures over UK France and Germany)

Were supposedly leaving Gosport 20.00 tonight for Yarmouth and onto Falmouth tomorrow - I can feel another YM article coming on.........

Your thoughts??

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[nicho]

Fascinating stuff this weather forecasting - ITV Teletext has now changed the forecast for the area North Foreland to St Cats Point to "Variable, then N/NE 5 - 7 later"!! BBC Ceefax for the same area, same time states, F3/4, occ 5.

What a lot!!

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[tcm]

i think you are answering your own question: best look not just at one weather forecast but the change in the weather forecasts as the date in question approaches. So, as it started okish and is getting worse - i'd go with the worse ones. Strange tho cos not sure if jimi is going out this weekend....

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[Neraida]

OK then, hows this...

TheyR.net who I find are usually fairly accurate say NNE (ish) 2-3 for tonight for your run down to Yarmouth. Then N4 along the channel backing to W4 through the day (friday) down channel.

Looking at the Met office pressure charts I cant see any big wind coming, however CLV had N 27knots at 0800(GMT) this morning.

I dunno...

<hr width=100% size=1><A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.ybw.com/cgi-bin/forums/postlist.pl?Cat=&Board=wanted>Stuff Wanted </A><P ID="edit"><FONT SIZE=-1>Edited by Neraida on 29/04/2004 10:25 (server time).</FONT></P>

 

[zefender]

Inshore forecast this morning (via BBC website)
From St. Catherine's Point to Lands End. Wind: north or northeast 5 or 6, occasionally 7 in the west. rain or showers. Visibility: moderate or good
Shipping forecast
PORTLAND
NORTHEAST 4 OR 5, INCREASING 6 OR 7 FOR A TIME. THUNDERY RAIN. MODERATE OR POOR

Given that it is you crewing on this passage, I'd be inclined to increase this forecast by a 'nicho factor' and thus expect, as is usual for you, a full gale...

I think you'll be tucking into Dartmouth to buy more buckets and pills.

Best of luck!


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[zefender]

Re: weather web latest

FRIDAY
Low pressure is going to be in the central English Channel through Friday, with a brisk E to NE flow across most of the country. Fronts are going to be wrapped into the flow as well, so all in all, not a great day! It is difficult to put detail onto the forecast, but here's my best shot for now.
Plenty of cloud in all places, although there may be a few early bright spells in the west of Wales and SW England.
Rain and low cloud in the east with plenty of mist and poor visibility.
More rain to come for Ireland and Scotland, although the north of Scotland may well be brighter and drier.
Winds generally E-NE F4-5 but F6 at times on east coasts of Scotland and NE England. Mainly N-NE F4 to F5 in Ireland.






SATURDAY
Low pressure is still going to be in control of conditions through Saturday. Weak fronts will be trapped into the flow, one lying west to east through the English Channel, with another moving south through northern England.
For Channel areas it will be dull again with low cloud and mist, as well as outbreaks of drizzle. Little change here through the day.
Over most of the rest of England, Wales and Ireland there will be further cloud, but also some brighter spells, with places sheltered from the wind most favoured to see sunshine.
The other front moving south through northern England will bring cloud and a few showery outbreaks of rain, but it should not be too active.
Scotland should be brighter, although rain may move back into the northwest later.
Winds will be mainly NE F3-4, although breezier on eastern coasts. Nearer F2-3 in northern Scotland.



SUNDAY
A better day seems likely for Sunday, although putting any detail onto the forecast is again tricky. However, generally we think that a col will exist through the country. There is a chance of a weak ridge building from the west, although a front still affects southern England.
Overall a brighter day with more broken cloud and better visibility. There will be thicker cloud to the south with rain and mist at times through the English Channel, although these are likely to be patchy.
There may be some thicker cloud around Northern Ireland and the English/Scottish borders producing an odd shower.
Winds will be light and variable overall.





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[Chris_Robb]

Jimi is all over the place - going to Scotland - so out of our way. Looks like he will benefit from the only decent weather as a high will start infuencing northern areas!

Why aren't you abroad somewhere warm?

Off th Plymout this w/e to sail someone elses boat - a Bav 38 - feet up and nothing to worry about.



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[tcm]

Re: Ah but

24 hour forecast from 5 am shows N/NE 4/5/6. Tomorrow easing East 2-4 all the way down to the scillies. So, i would definitely go to Yarmouth for a look in the morning, and sneak into lymbe bay a bit for a flatter sea mebbe. Mind you, it will chuck it down.

Oh, and also zefender has been very naughty in illegaly republishing expensive weather forecasts here and i bet kim will be squirming



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[zefender]

Re: Free mate

It comes to me free as email, and is normally posted here by the author most weeks so I don't think I'll be I'll be sin-binned by the charming, intelligent and startlingly good looking Kimmie.

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[tcm]

Re: ooh not sure

it says "crown copyright" all over the place tho? and you can have an email BUT not publish as follows:

"Crown copyright
The material featured on this site is subject to Crown copyright protection unless otherwise indicated. The material may be downloaded to file or printer for the purposes of private study and scientific research."

er, oh poo - i've just broken their rules as well!...

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[Robin]

It has meant a replan for us too, we were due to leave in a couple of hours for Cherbourg's mustard dens and moule palaces but have decided that with only 10-12degs and horizontal rain up the rear we can probably shorten the pain and go east or west tomorrow instead. The rain may still be horizontal but from the beam and offshore so the waves wil not spill the hot toddies, typical bank holiday weather!

Jimi must not have told the weather gods he's gone north, or perhaps it is Glen Rosa that is the target not the driver?

<hr width=100% size=1><P ID="edit"><FONT SIZE=-1>Edited by Robin on 29/04/2004 11:56 (server time).</FONT></P>

 

[duncan]

Come on - you wanted wind after last weekend; you seem to be getting what you ordered! /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

I can see mulled wine reappearing on Phaeton after the brief foray into cold beers last weekend ..........

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[Robin]

A little lesson in met for raggies:-

We like (and can handle) more wind than mobos IF it is in the right direction.
We do not have leather (heated?) armchairs indoors with windscreen wipers, so rain is not liked.
Wind strength may be measured in Beaufort but you must consider the add-ons. Add a fudge factor of 1 for each 5 degrees below 20degs C, add another 1 for drizzle, 2 for rain and 3 for fog. Headwinds add 1 again. Likewise you can subtract 1 for each 5 degs above 20 degs C and subtract 1 if the wind is offshore and another if over the shoulder.

So you can see that a forecast of N5-7 with poor vis, rain and 10 degs max doesn't come out too well, not least in the nookie points as calculated by SWMBO. There is no consolation in a delay either since the froggie shops are closed both Saturday and Sunday, so it looks like boring old Solent or maybe Weymouth and buy her some moules in Mallams and order them in French.

You see, life is not simple for us raggies!

Mulled wine sounds nice, not really into canned beers cold or warm, more red wines and G&Ts, though I am reminded I was going to put some Crabbies on for cold nights & whisky Macs....

Drop by if you see us, have a good weekend whatever!

Robin



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[Oldhand]

11 knots at the Lymington platform at the moment (2000) so I guess the the "windy" forecasts are already wrong.

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[nicho]

So, what did we get....?

Thursday evening,
Forecast for Solent - anywhere between F4 and F8 depending on which website/forecaster you listened to.
Actual - Portsmouth to Yarmouth, NE F4/5, wind with tide, calm sea.

Friday.
Forecast - NE F4/5, decreasing variable 2/3
Actual - Yarmouth to Dartmouth, NE F5/6, gusting 7 all day, moderate sea on the starboard rear quarter (uncomfortable)

Saturday.
Forecast - Variable 2/3or less.
Actual - Dartmouth to Falmouth, NE F4 for first 6 hours, gradually reducing to F3.


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[jonjo]

Re: Success?

This reads like a successful delivery trip, 200 odd miles westward in 3 days with the wind offshore and aft of beam.

Were you delivering a friend's brand new Bavaria, the one you had mentioned in an earlier thread?

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[nicho]

Re: Success?

Yep, see post "Jinx buster"

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