A force 8 weekend!

[Gludy]

I planned to go out on Sunday because looking at the barometric charts it seemed that the Bristol channel was going to give a dry, clear, sunny day with offshore N winds of f2 to f4.
I was surprised to learn that the coastguard Saturday night were issuing high wind warning and predicting a f8 in our area for Sunday. This was later down rated Sunday morning to an f7 forecast.
Not believing a word of this we went on the planned trip and experienced no winds at any time stronger than f4 and mostly f2 or f3. It was clear and sunny.
How is it possible to get the forecasts so wrong with only hours to go - the gale force waning was classed as imminent?
I no longer believe these forecasts – I just do not see how they can get it so wrong when I basing my prediction on the same source of charts find it easy to get it right.

My charts are based upon:-
http://meteonet.nl/aktueel/brackall.htm

Can someone please advise me how such met office based predictions can vary so much from the fact?

Maybe I should now vote again in my own worst weather poll and claim I sailed all day in a f8.

 

[BrendanS]

Which are were the coastguard warning for - offshore or inshore?

 

[steverow]

Swansea CG forecast at 2000 sat evening, was a gale warning, for Fastnet and Lundy NE Force 8 soon.
By midnight this had been downgraded to a Strong wind warning up to force 7 possibly 8 for inshore waters including the bristol channel.
I heard the 8.00pm one, and both Gludy and I heard the midnight broadcast.
In the event we had nothing more than a F4 at the very worst, with slight to moderate seas. A lovely day with a cloudless sky in fact.
This was very wrong, has anyone else experienced this sort of inaccuracy?
Im aware that it's not an exact science, but even so...
Steve.

 

[BrendanS]

Offshore regions then? Which cover a huge area offshore? What did the Bristol Channel forecasts report?

Fairly regularly. The first time I did the raggie boat Cherbourg meet trip is a classic example. We ended up bringing Zefenders raggie boat home in a F8 cross channel (in the early stages, it got better and better), but the forecast hadn't been anything like that, or they wouldn't have gone across in the first place. The first clue was the forecast on the french side posted on the harbour masters office (Capitainarie) while we were there. I can find you the thread on the subject from a few years ago.

I seldom believe CG forecasts, unless the forecast is quite simple, though they are only relaying on foreacasts they receive from Met Office. What is unfortunate, as has been said on these forums over the years, is that they don't over ride by looking out of window, or passing on what people on the water sometimes relay back to them.

I use a variety of forecast sources, and my own judgement, and don't rely on one single source. The CG forecast is no better than others available, and often worse.

Practical experience over the years leads me foremost to Theyr.net, then to a bunch of other websites, along with forecasts from a free email service provided by a professional forecaster Simon who posts here, looking at webcams and real time data from bouys like chimet and bramblenet (and others further afield) and then latterly the CG forecast. I look at isobarics and a variety of models, but find that others who do it for a living tend to do that a little more accurately than myself, as they do it full time, not just to try to relate what they are seeing to the realities, as none of the RYA courses teach to the standard of a professional forecaster, but you do pick up a hell of a lot.

Sign up to Simon's newsletter, and you'll not only get free weekend weather forecasts for your region, but will also get his 'musings' when interesting phenomena turn up, like unusual sea temperature measurements, high level atmospheric phenomena etc.

 

[Gludy]

I am signed up to Simon's emails and I find his forecasts excellent, interesting, entertaining, educational and balanced ... in fact the best available.

I still however try to form my own judgment based on all the information available ... but that is not the point of this thread ... what I am saying is that the CG forecast (met office in other words) is often so much out as to be, in my opinion, next to worthless. It can lure boats who do not know better out to sea and give them a rough time or prevent people going to sea by a terrible forecast and then have them miss an otherwise very nice day.

I used to subscribe to the Met Office detailed but stopped using it because I found it so inaccurate.

TCM once wrote that all you need is the forecast barometric charts and thatis it .... in the end I have to agree with that.

 

[woodie1000]

Brendan,

Simon's newsletter sounds useful - where can I sign up for it please?

 

[mjf]

Me too please . How do you sign up?

 

[kindredspirit]

Hi Gludy,

You can use DWD synoptic charts as well to cross-check against Bracknell's on the Swiss Meteosail site here. http://www.bischofberger.info/meteosail/eu/ie/index.html

Its a good site because it has Windfinder's charts as well on it.

 

[kindredspirit]

You can apply for Simon's newsletter here.
http://www.weatherweb.net/uksail.htm

 

[Gludy]

Thanks for the Irish charts link - very useful and I will check against the Bracknell charts.

 

[Deleted User YDKXO]

Whats worse is that the Met Office charge for this crappy service through the likes of Marinecall a service that we should already have paid for through taxation. I wonder if you can sue them if they get it wrong
The Met Office's usual excuse is that the UK weather is unpredictable. Well, if its unpredictable, they should'nt be making a charge to predict it

 

[MadMat]

I am a fan of www.metcheck.com
I've found it to be pretty reliable.

 

[gcwhite]

Try accuweather.com. I have found them good and they give detailed forecasts up to 15 days ahead. Surprisingly so far I have found these to be acceptably accurate.

 

[Gludy]

Its not a question of trying other sites - as welcome as the suggestions are, my point is to question how the Met office forecasts are often so much adrift as to, in my opinion, render them useless or even dnagerous to some beginners.

I am very much a student of the weather and at the end of the day, I reckon that the essential thing to have is a barometric chart.

 

[arto]

The Met Office are clearly not that reliable. If they could really predict the future, surely they would all be rich.

But maybe that's what happens... The good ones figure out how to predict the future and leave to pursue a life of ease, meaning that the ones left to invent the forecast are those completely unable to figure out what will happen next.

Or, slightly more seriously, clearly you need to take the forecast with a pinch of salt.

 

[MadMat]

What I like about the metcheck is that if they're not sure, they'll say they're not sure, but list the possibilities, and the likelihood of each. This at least means you can plan based on the range of weather that's likely. They also have lots of background information that 'we' can access, for example weather trends, plus the synopsis and other articles all well written in a language that a normal human (as opposed to a meteorologist) can understand. Definately get's my vote.