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franksingleton's latest activity
franksingleton
replied to the thread
Weather advancements
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Whether it is pre-computer synoptic data of the current mix of radiances, cloud motion vectors, scatterometer wind data, experimental...
8 Dec 2024
franksingleton
replied to the thread
Weather advancements
.
Yes, but remember that, roughly, a little over 10% of the mass of our atmosphere is above 15 km. The learning so far has, I understand...
8 Dec 2024
franksingleton
replied to the thread
Weather advancements
.
Physical modelling requires global, 3D data, surface to about 80km. Some have suggested even higher but that seems very unlikely. AI...
8 Dec 2024
franksingleton
replied to the thread
Weather advancements
.
You would need 100,000 drone capable of flying at all heights up to 80km. Or radiosondes on a dense network over the whole globe capable...
8 Dec 2024
franksingleton
replied to the thread
Weather advancements
.
Maybe we are using the term data collection in different ways. As I see it, it is not so much a case of acquiring more data but...
7 Dec 2024
franksingleton
replied to the thread
Has somebody broken the Met Office weather model?
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Probably a quirk of the algorithms used to generate the various presentations. They all using the UKV.
7 Dec 2024
franksingleton
replied to the thread
Weather advancements
.
No meteorological data set can ever be perfect. There is far too much inherent variability in the atmosphere. The same applies to...
6 Dec 2024
franksingleton
replied to the thread
Weather advancements
.
The ECMWF trial shows little difference out to 3 days ahead but that AIFS betters IFS from 4 to 10 days. That is based on RMS of 500 hPa...
6 Dec 2024
franksingleton
replied to the thread
Weather advancements
.
I am not doubting that AI will be a valuable tool in weather prediction. I am trying to warn against over expectation. I note that ECMWF...
5 Dec 2024
franksingleton
replied to the thread
Weather advancements
.
See, also, Operational satellite a ‘landmark moment’ for weather forecasts. I suspect the main value here is in the very short term. An...
5 Dec 2024
franksingleton
replied to the thread
Weather advancements
.
I cannot guess how long training using raw data might take. Intuitively, I would guess that is far more complex than using the ERA5...
5 Dec 2024
franksingleton
replied to the thread
Weather advancements
.
I do not think that there is anything new over and above what has been said in earlier posts. In particular, the article says - “There...
4 Dec 2024
franksingleton
replied to the thread
Met Office porkies
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You are clearly jaundiced. The CEO is paid less than the average CEO. Bonuses were discussed in a thread not long ago. Per capita, the...
29 Nov 2024
franksingleton
replied to the thread
Met Office porkies
.
Statistics do not explain or predict climate. They only describe what has happened. They provide confirmatory evidence. Statistics can...
29 Nov 2024
franksingleton
replied to the thread
Met Office porkies
.
Clearly, the IPCC has failed to convince many people of the gravity of the reality of climate change. The Roysl Society, one of the most...
29 Nov 2024
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