WARNING - DANGEROUS MEDICANE FORMING

[Yngmar]

Newish sailors get scared at the sight of such a forecast and their natural reaction is to find something labeled "marina" or "harbour" (very liberally applied labels in Greece) and run there, thinking it's safe because in whichever country they come from, things labeled marina or harbour are usually very safe. Too late they realize how wrong they are.

At anchor it may be bouncier, but there's nothing to smash up against as long as the anchor holds (and the anchor of the boat upwind of you, which is often the bigger worry) and while you may well get scared and sleep deprived, you'll usually come through safe - if you picked at good anchorage at least. But this goes against the instinct of new cruisers.

We have some friends in Spartochori (Meganisi) that did the same, despite our advice and giving them a list of good anchorages within range. They went on the pontoon there, which is rather exposed to anything northerly coming in and trust the local guy who assured them all was safe. We haven't heard from them today, we're a bit worried. At least it's a steel boat so they may get away with some dents and a lot of experience!

 

[BurnitBlue]

I agree that mooring against a Greek Quay is asking for trouble. In bad weather I always leave the quay and drop my anchor in the bay. I am amazed that skippers who med moor to a greek Quay trust their bow anchor to hold them off a stone wall only one meter astern. To me it is akin to anchoring a boat out in the bay only one meter from a rock. Nobody would consider doing that yet it is considered safe to do that just that one meter from a stone wall. In fact it is a lot worse than doing the same in front of a rock.
I recall being against a quay in Kastolarizon outside Kas. The tavernas had just altered the geometry of the harbour by building an all round quay wall over what was gentle sloping beaches to attract patrons to med moor next to their restaurants. When a bad forecast was issued I went out to anchor. The outcome was predictable and I thank the bar owner who warned me about what would happen. Waves entered the bay/harbour and rebounded off all the walls like a billiard ball against three cushions. It was like a washing machine. Those waves previously had their power dissapated by gently rolling up the beach. It was chaos. I can drag my anchor thirty meters or so while those on the quay are grinding their stern away after dragging only a meter. It is the same anchor and effectively the same bottom. I can recover my anchor a darn sight easier than contending with crossed chains. QED. Actually the big difference is that a quay moored boat exerts a constant direction of pull on the anchor as against the swinging free anchored boat. It takes a decision aften difficult at a time of stress to determine the best choice taking into account the percentage of risk.

 

[sailaboutvic]

Just became within internet range and took a look at the picture , I not suprise to see the out come , as some have said the first sign of bad weather and people head for harbours and Marinas .
It wouldn't be so bad if they picked the right harbour .

For us who know Greece we can understand why so much damage , for them looking at the picture who never sailed in Greece There a very simple explanation , there loads of novice sailors and we not only talking on charter boats .
May new owners buy boats there who has very little experiences some none at all .

 

[AndrewB]

Errr... Ag.Eufemia is pretty well sheltered against all but east and south-east winds. If I'd had late notification while sailing that area, that could well have been where I would have headed. But anchoring out in the harbour might have been the wise choice - depending on whether keeping your yacht intact was your first priority.

I think Sailaboutvic is right that the yachts in those pics were probably mostly charters, in which case the crew would have been far more sensible staying out of harm's way than in trying to save someone else's yacht.

Thanks guys for reposting the videos. Does anyone know what the wind strength/maximum gust strength was there?

 

[Mr Cassandra]

Just had a call from a friend, Seafairers charter boats lost 4 boats in the storm.

 

[Resolution]

Some owners need to understand that any old harbour is not necessarily good news! With Agia Efimia the exposure is bloody obvious !

Why the heck would anyone with even half a brain go anywhere near Ay Efimia with that forecast?

Errr... Ag.Eufemia is pretty well sheltered against all but east and south-east winds. If I'd had late notification while sailing that area, that could well have been where I would have headed. But anchoring out in the harbour might have been the wise choice - depending on whether keeping your yacht intact was your first priority.

I've only been to Ay Eufimia once before and rather liked it. We found good shelter in a medium northerly. Why the strong negative comments above (from old Greek hands who probably know more than I do!)? Where would you have gone instead, starting say from Zakinthos two days ago?

The really difficult aspect of this spot of bad weather is the tightness of the whole circulation, so highly likely to have major changes in wind direction. I would agree with AndrewB that mooring against a quayside is foolhardy, far better to be able to swing on your anchor(s).
PS I see from my weather maps that the eye of the storm passed over Eufimia about midday, UK time.

 

[Chris_Robb]

As someone far away but who knows the area I have been watching this storm with some interest. It is a tribute to the scientists and technicians who have done so much work on weather modelling that this was forecast, pretty well, as early as Tuesday 00 UTC, possibly earlier. As such a small feature in a difficult area, it is hardly surprising that forecasts differed slightly between each other and between successive runs. The GFS upon which many “non-official” models depend, was as good as any. ECMWF and ICON-EU, likewise did well.
Moral - ignore severe weather forecast shown on numerical weather models at your peril.

Frank, I have a screen shot of ICONs forecast of the Medicine on Wednesday and one this morning. They foot the landfall almost spot on.. GFS which has always been my go to were very slow to wake up and only very late on the day did they get it any where near, actually well to the south!

Quite what happened to Poseidon who didn't wake up till the last minute, I don't know but as that is used a lot that might explain why people were caught out.
Poseidon deleted now!

 

[Chris_Robb]

I've only been to Ay Eufimia once before and rather liked it. We found good shelter in a medium northerly. Why the strong negative comments above (from old Greek hands who probably know more than I do!)? Where would you have gone instead, starting say from Zakinthos two days ago?

The really difficult aspect of this spot of bad weather is the tightness of the whole circulation, so highly likely to have major changes in wind direction. I would agree with AndrewB that mooring against a quayside is foolhardy, far better to be able to swing on your anchor(s).
PS I see from my weather maps that the eye of the storm passed over Eufimia about midday, UK time.

Peter, the biggest threat was always going to be from the E to East followed by a monthly. The strategic plan needed safety from south round through to NE the north. Still a is fine in a northerly. The bottom is weed and was probably without the benefit of hindsight the worst possible place along with the likes of Fiskardo, another death trap.. very near by Sami, would have been rough but safe behind the marina breakwater.
On ithaka there is big Vathy, a real bolt hole, or Vassiliki provided your draft is less than 2 meters. Near by Sivota is not a good spot, shit holding for swinging, and considerable swell entering.
Loads of more obvious places.

Personally, with good holding I prefer to anchor as the concrete killer behind you is a disaster waiting to happen.

 

[franksingleton]

Frank, I have a screen shot of ICONs forecast of the Medicine on Wednesday and one this morning. They foot the landfall almost spot on.. GFS which has always been my go to were very slow to wake up and only very late on the day did they get it any where near, actually well to the south!

Quite what happened to Poseidon who didn't wake up till the last minute, I don't know but as that is used a lot that might explain why people were caught out.
Poseidon deleted now!

Chris, it may depend on how you look at forecasts. On the CA forum on Tuesday, 0900 LT, I wrote. “A nasty looking brute. ......... By Thursday, ICON-EU has speeds up to about 46 kts. ECMWF and GFS manage no more than 26. The patterns are very similar. So, allowing for the inbuilt under prediction of winds by models, I would be looking at gales on the basis of the global models and storm force using regional models.”


At that time, ICON-EU would be based on data up to 03 UTC, GFS was based on data up to 00 UTC. Both models, like ECMWF were showing a substantial low heading for the Ionians.


On the same day at 1715 LT, I wrote: “ The latest GFS, based on 0600 data is forecasting F8. Add at least one force.”


That forecast was available by about 1200 LT. So, as I see it the three models got the movement of the low pretty well. ICON-EU was about 3 hours ahead of the Gfs regarding wind speeds

 

[Davy_S]

Thanks guys for reposting the videos. Does anyone know what the wind strength/maximum gust strength was there?

Been talking to a friend who has a yacht in Lixouri, he stayed up all night with his yacht, the wind there reached F12, and then completely reversed direction, he was safe until that happened, he has suffered damaged topsides and stantions, but got away with it, Regarding Agia Efimia, ( i lived there for 11years) I have only once seen the sea come over the wall, the worst winds are N/E and East, the safest place is tucked in behind the mole, what happens is the waves circulate inside the harbour, like a washing machine, yachts at anchor in front of the tavernas have no chance of holding, you can tell how bad it was, there is a twelve foot hole been ripped out of the road near to the jetty at Boulevard hotel, even the small boats ran for Sami, and that took a pasting, the small boat harbour in front of familia taverna is the safest, but it was full, the road between Agonas and Myrtos has fallen down into the sea, very very bad!

 

[grumpygit]

I did see 103kts recorded around Kefalonia but I can't remember in which publication or site I saw it. Here in the Saronic we've been generally lucky . . . up to now!

 

[tchierici]

If you were at the anchor, assuming good holding ground and a depth of 5m max, what set up would you adopt to ride out such a beast? For example, my boat is a 33ft and I have 50m of chain and 15m warp on a fortress. I also have a stern anchor and chain (30m). Would you use the stern anchor as a second anchor to make V or would you add the extra 30m chain (so total of 80m chain) and use the stern anchor in tandem with the bow anchor?

 

[sailaboutvic]

If you were at the anchor, assuming good holding ground and a depth of 5m max, what set up would you adopt to ride out such a beast? For example, my boat is a 33ft and I have 50m of chain and 15m warp on a fortress. I also have a stern anchor and chain (30m). Would you use the stern anchor as a second anchor to make V or would you add the extra 30m chain (so total of 80m chain) and use the stern anchor in tandem with the bow anchor?

Some thing to consider when using two anchor in these storm ,
A .. if the wind swing around you can end up with the chain/Warp around each other and possible for one to dislodge the other anchor
B... if you happen to start to drag you then have two anchors to deal with , one bad enough in very strong wind in some cases waves too .
C .. most boat are crew by two on boat i.e. ( husband and wife ) unless they are very experienced one need to deal with the anchor while the other the helm at other end of the boat your going to have one person who possibly having got the experience to deal with that situation.

We used two anchors in the past but only when we sure the wind going to stay constant from one direction, I can tell you we been caught out a few times in very strong wind when this had happen but lucky nothing like tho in Greece had to deal with and we both experience sailors and it wasn't easily to deal with two tangle anchors in strong winds once we even had to buoy both of them and take off and come back to pick them up later .when a boat dragging nearly took us with them .

 

[newtothis]

If you were at the anchor, assuming good holding ground and a depth of 5m max, what set up would you adopt to ride out such a beast? For example, my boat is a 33ft and I have 50m of chain and 15m warp on a fortress. I also have a stern anchor and chain (30m). Would you use the stern anchor as a second anchor to make V or would you add the extra 30m chain (so total of 80m chain) and use the stern anchor in tandem with the bow anchor?

Skip Novak's advice, based on years of anchoring around Cape Horn, is a single anchor and a whole loada chain. Then some more.

 

[RupertW]

Skip Novak's advice, based on years of anchoring around Cape Horn, is a single anchor and a whole loada chain. Then some more.

The difficulty with a single anchor is if your boat is prone to veering and in bad weather maybe 70 degrees either side of the wind. The speed built up before the veering reverses puts a huge snatch load on the single anchor. I much prefer two anchors in a Vee if wind is going to be steady (or long lines to shore so held by 3 points). But if the wind is going to go right round then one anchor with lots of chain, yes, but vitally with a lot of stretch rope rode too to dampen the snatch load. And removal of as much windage forward as possible - so for us that is taking the rib off the foredeck and getting the Genoa wrapped as tightly as possible.

The only reason the Genoa doesn’t come off is that if we end up having to sail unexpectedly I want it there.

 

[Davy_S]

Agia Efimia this morning - The Kefalonia Pulse

 

[sailaboutvic]

Agia Efimia this morning - The Kefalonia Pulse

Not a good adv for islongo .
What a mess so many have lost their boats and in some cases their home .

 

[sailaboutvic]

Skip Novak's advice, based on years of anchoring around Cape Horn, is a single anchor and a whole loada chain. Then some more.

In my option in any strong winds this is the best option and as with a very long snubber

 

[lask]

My boat is 31 feet i have 20 kg anchor 60 meters chain and 50 meters rope. Years now in the Aegean and Cyclades when it has a lot of wind and extreme phenomena after the first 30 meters of chain I tie a weight of 8 kg with a rope (so I can cut it in need) and then another 30 meters of chain and if it has no rocks I throw a rope . He has never betrayed.

 

[Davy_S]

Here is a video from Agia Efimia to Sami showing the damage, it will take 11 minutes of your life, but worth it!