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WARNING - DANGEROUS MEDICANE FORMING

Chris_Robb

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This has started to form over the sea north of Tunisia. At present ICON has it tracking north then east to smother the Ionians on Thursday.
The forecast Gusts are up to 75 knots.
See screen shots from Ventusky - too big to load.Medicane 2020 september SMALL.pngmedican thursday sept 2020SMALL.png
 
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Chris_Robb

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I wonder which model they ate using.
It is a compromise on Icon and gas track and shows more wind than GFS but less the icon. Icon currently shows 100 knots in levcas aria Thursday evening and the storm looking intensity over the land, but yours shows it maintaining greater force as it avoids full landfall.

Let's hope the reduced numbers in the Ionian will allow all to find good shelter
 

Mistroma

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Currently in Scotland, boat in Greece (Ionian)
Oh joy, at least our boat is out of the water and hopefully in a strong enough frame. I think that these must be happening more frequently these days. Last one I remember was in 2018. I remember that was preceded by storm Xenophon, followed by the Medicane itself. It was very difficult to predict the path and we ended up anchored in Porto Heli, only to find that was pretty much in the centre of the actual path.

I have friends sailing in the area and hope they don't have problems. I must have a look at a GRIB to see if Igoumenitsa creek or behind Petalas Island look reasonable, depending on how far North or South they are cruising.
 

grumpygit

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29 Jul 2007
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Sailing the Aegean
I wonder which model they ate using.
It is a compromise on Icon and gas track and shows more wind than GFS but less the icon. Icon currently shows 100 knots in levcas aria Thursday evening and the storm looking intensity over the land, but yours shows it maintaining greater force as it avoids full landfall.

Let's hope the reduced numbers in the Ionian will allow all to find good shelter
Cheers for the heads-up on this. It looks as though the Ionian is going to be hit a lot harder than the Aegean. I was here in Saronic gulf for the Medicane two years ago when many boats and yachts got sunk in our port by the huge winds and sea state, such a heart breaking sight to watch and I will never forget it.
Thankfully with prior warning I had chance to put out an extra lengthened bow rode as well as extending it's own ground tackle and it successfully held it's mooring.
The Greek Reporter is following this but are not expecting an update till Thursday morning which is a little late I would say. Severe Storms, Possible "Medicane" to Hit Greece Later This Week | GreekReporter.com

Stay vigilant and stay safe.
 

BurnitBlue

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In Transit
I am ashore on my boat in an Aktio boatyard. I am not looking forward to this at all. If it is an action replay of a similar storm a few years ago (2018) it toppled a large Oyster whose mast creamed four other boats. A large heavy boat next but one to me went walkabout about sideways cradle and all. Tracks in the gravel plotted the excursion.
Some of the problem with the toppled Oyster was the cradle chains that hold the four swinging uprights tight to the hull. The big rigging screw on these uprights used a hook to connect the chain to the base of the cradle. The hooks simply straightened out releasing the uprights to swing out. Glad of the new law to have mandatory third party insurance in Greece. Good on Greece for that.
 

Mistroma

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Currently in Scotland, boat in Greece (Ionian)
I am ashore on my boat in an Aktio boatyard. I am not looking forward to this at all. If it is an action replay of a similar storm a few years ago (2018) it toppled a large Oyster whose mast creamed four other boats. A large heavy boat next but one to me went walkabout about sideways cradle and all. Tracks in the gravel plotted the excursion.
Some of the problem with the toppled Oyster was the cradle chains that hold the four swinging uprights tight to the hull. The big rigging screw on these uprights used a hook to connect the chain to the base of the cradle. The hooks simply straightened out releasing the uprights to swing out. Glad of the new law to have mandatory third party insurance in Greece. Good on Greece for that.
I've had a quick look at some data and get the feeling that it might be similar to the track taken by the one in 2018. Possibly right over Porto Heli or slightly North of that area. Still complete guesswork and I remember watching the progress of the 2018 one like a hawk and seeing all sorts of forecast track. Everything from over Preveza to Crete and then Turkey. I don't have the same level of interest this time around as there's not much I can do with my boat ashore in Ionian yard. At least Mistroma may be in a less crowded part right at the top of the yard. I know that boats either side launched this year but of course they could already have slotted in more boats.

I suspect that I'd head up to Igoumenitsa Creek if I was sailing above Preveza and hope it's quiet. Good luck and hope you get some sleep if it does track towards you. I suspect it won't be pleasant but at least you have some time to prepare. Interesting to hear about your experience in 2018, I thought that Preveza got off more lightly than us and had not heard about boats falling over.
 
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sailaboutvic

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I am ashore on my boat in an Aktio boatyard. I am not looking forward to this at all. If it is an action replay of a similar storm a few years ago (2018) it toppled a large Oyster whose mast creamed four other boats. A large heavy boat next but one to me went walkabout about sideways cradle and all. Tracks in the gravel plotted the excursion.
Some of the problem with the toppled Oyster was the cradle chains that hold the four swinging uprights tight to the hull. The big rigging screw on these uprights used a hook to connect the chain to the base of the cradle. The hooks simply straightened out releasing the uprights to swing out. Glad of the new law to have mandatory third party insurance in Greece. Good on Greece for that.
The start of it just pass south of where we are now , looking closely of the path it's taken at the moment the worst should pass south of you , look more like the south of the penoplese and Crete will get a good bashing .
Although these can change course very quickly so best to be perpaired.
Hope all goes well for everyone .
 

Chris_Robb

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Its all very strange with Greek Poseiden not really monitoring a storm at all. Its out there alright because the satellite shows it,
I think Icon may be OTT - I hope it is for all your sake out there!
 

sailaboutvic

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Its all very strange with Greek Poseiden not really monitoring a storm at all. Its out there alright because the satellite shows it,
I think Icon may be OTT - I hope it is for all your sake out there!
I just picked up a satellite image and its looks very impressive sitting some miles East of Sicily ,
I would take it very seriously if I was in Greece now .
We was supouto sail to Sicily from Malta in the early hours to morrow but knowing how these can change direction we think we sit it out another day plus there a 4 mt swell out there so that in its self is a incentive to make us stay put .
 

Chris_Robb

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I just picked up a satellite image and its looks very impressive sitting some miles East of Sicily ,
I would take it very seriously if I was in Greece now .
We was supouto sail to Sicily from Malta in the early hours to morrow but knowing how these can change direction we think we sit it out another day plus there a 4 mt swell out there so that in its self is a incentive to make us stay put .
Icon and gfs now agreeing in strengths gusts 58kn. One goes to Levkas and the other zante. The zante gfs goes on furthe east with strenght down the peleponese, were as icon disintegrates
 

Yngmar

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We set off on Monday from Erikoussa, with a nice looking forecast, straight for Portopalo (SE corner of Sicily). The next time I got a mobile signal somewhere 30 miles south of Rocella Ionica, I didn't quite believe what the updated forecast showed. What had been a little 1012 mBar depression that was supposed to provide us with a nice downwind run was now this beast.

We managed to sail through the NW edge of it, surfing down big waves (easily 2m) and doing rather good speeds with just a scrap of main sail out. Winds were only 25-33 knots with a few gusts to 40, but the waves were pretty wild and by the time we rounded Capo Passero it was all getting a bit iffy and we were glad to be out of that. Now resting safely at anchor and talking to our friends in Greece, who are bricking it. I figured it'd putter out after hitting the Western Peloponnese, but it looks like it might go all the way to Crete.

Also heard one catamaran who was also crossing from Greece might still be out there, hope they're ok (they haven't got AIS, so no idea where they are only heard it from mutual friends).
 

sailaboutvic

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We set off on Monday from Erikoussa, with a nice looking forecast, straight for Portopalo (SE corner of Sicily). The next time I got a mobile signal somewhere 30 miles south of Rocella Ionica, I didn't quite believe what the updated forecast showed. What had been a little 1012 mBar depression that was supposed to provide us with a nice downwind run was now this beast.

We managed to sail through the NW edge of it, surfing down big waves (easily 2m) and doing rather good speeds with just a scrap of main sail out. Winds were only 25-33 knots with a few gusts to 40, but the waves were pretty wild and by the time we rounded Capo Passero it was all getting a bit iffy and we were glad to be out of that. Now resting safely at anchor and talking to our friends in Greece, who are bricking it. I figured it'd putter out after hitting the Western Peloponnese, but it looks like it might go all the way to Crete.

Also heard one catamaran who was also crossing from Greece might still be out there, hope they're ok (they haven't got AIS, so no idea where they are only heard it from mutual friends).
Probably be in porto Palo Friday night if your still there unless we continue all the way to Siracusa.
If we don't catch you , see you in Licata some time in Late Oct
 

Yngmar

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Probably be in porto Palo Friday night if your still there unless we continue all the way to Siracusa.
If we don't catch you , see you in Licata some time in Late Oct
We want to head west and forecast is on the nose for the foreseeable future, so we'll probably be here for a bit. Can use some rest. Endless rain right now, with the odd gust. At least the salt gets washed off the deck! Looks like the fishing fleet is mostly staying in port too.
 

sailaboutvic

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We want to head west and forecast is on the nose for the foreseeable future, so we'll probably be here for a bit. Can use some rest. Endless rain right now, with the odd gust. At least the salt gets washed off the deck! Looks like the fishing fleet is mostly staying in port too.
Join the club , we had constant thunderstorm and rain for the last two hours crashing over our heads .
Strong wind gust and the same forecaster locally to morrow , another reason to stay put till Friday .

If the cat you was on about is Sarah and David , there are safe in Sicily .
 

sailaboutvic

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@ BurnitBlue and Mistroma you can now relax a bit storm now tracking more south , look like Zakynthos Kefalonia are going to get the worst of it before it start to die off .
 
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