Is the Southampton Boat Show going to be cancelled?

Concerto

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As the start of the sailing season looks like being wiped out. My concern about the Southampton Boat Show is because my Fulmar Concerto is the Westerly Owners Association boat to be at the show. Luckily I do not have to plan months in advance like the manufacturers, but I still would like to know as soon as possible. On the boat show web site there is no information, so I checked the British Marine web site. The last comment is dated 16 March, but there is a strong possibility of cancellation.

COVID-19 update – Southampton International Boat Show

When I find any further updates I will post these.
 

JumbleDuck

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Pollyanna here. I would be very surprised if the current crisis lasted that long. By summer I expect there will be effective drug treatments in ready supply. Other, poorer countries may not be so fortunate, though, and I wouldn't be surprised if travel restrictions from them last a lot longer.

All wild and optimistic guesswork.
 
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I'm inclined to think that it may be one of the first "events" post epidemic, unless the current delaying tactics succeed beyond the NHS's wildest dreams.

Do you not mean unless the current delaying tactics fail? Unlike Pollyanna, I think the genie is out the bottle and social distancing will fail, the NHS will be overwhelmed and their worst nightmares feared, triage for life and death. I have tickets for a music festival, I expect it to be cancelled, the yard my boat is in has cancelled all launchings and banned people from entering the yard to protect it's work force (that is good). Another yard come marina has sent an email inviting everyone to their yard, local shop and cafes (that is bad), my local town pub is open until Monday and proudly announcing it - it will be packed this weekend. At the end of the day, I don't know of course, but I do know that businesses are actively encouraging people to go to them in some cases. Hence my reasons for believing that we are about to go down a similar road as Italy. Hope Pollyanna is correct.
 

laika

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Do you not mean unless the current delaying tactics fail?

I think he meant what he said. Without the delay strategy there was predicted to be a massive spike in cases in the coming weeks and then it would fall back well before the boat show but leaving a lot of people dead because the surge meant there were no facilities to treat them. If the delaying tactics worked amazingly there would be a slower expansion of cases which would mean there were still lots of cases in September, but with cases spread over a longer period more people could be effectively treated.

It's 15 years since I've been aboard a fulmar and so I look forward to seeing the OP's boat, even if it has to be next year.
 

Concerto

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It's 15 years since I've been aboard a fulmar and so I look forward to seeing the OP's boat, even if it has to be next year.
Look forward to meeting you in the future. I love hearing about other peoples experiences of sailing on a Fulmar. Keeping my fingers crossed it will be this year, if not then next year.
 

burgundyben

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Its 30 years since I went on a Fulmar and I'd love to again. I am planning on going to the next Southampton show, there's a few bits of kit I want to check out, I only go to the show about once every ten years.
 

JumbleDuck

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Do you not mean unless the current delaying tactics fail? Unlike Pollyanna, I think the genie is out the bottle and social distancing will fail, the NHS will be overwhelmed and their worst nightmares feared, triage for life and death.
If that happens it will all be over - rather literally for 15% of people older than 70 - well before September. On the other hand, our society cannot survive this level of isolation and economic inactivity long. On the other, other hand, it's now the whole of science versus one virus.

I've come to the conclusion that coronavirus forecast are very like weather forecasts ...

1. Look around enough and you can always find one to suit your mood, whether that's insane optimism, abject pessimism or anything in between.

2. It won't be as bad as people fear or as good as people hope. Buy Fray Bentos and hope you won't need them.
 

lw395

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I suspect people's boat-buying aspirations might be somewhat reduced.
There might be a surplus of this year's deckshoes and so forth at sensible prices.
 

stuartwineberg

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I think the problem is lead time planning. It’s not unreasonable to keep a September event on “simmer”. What matters is the cut off date for commitments on infrastructure and the like and that could be anytime. You can see how it works with the olympics and the desperate attempts to try and make it happen this year vs the cries of the athletes trying to plan training. As a microbiologist I reckon this virus will be a permanent feature until we get a vaccine although I have been surprised by the lack of noise about using antiviral drugs. I thought the comment above about malarial and hiv drugs interesting and would like to know more.
 

FlyingGoose

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I think the problem is lead time planning. It’s not unreasonable to keep a September event on “simmer”. What matters is the cut off date for commitments on infrastructure and the like and that could be anytime. You can see how it works with the olympics and the desperate attempts to try and make it happen this year vs the cries of the athletes trying to plan training. As a microbiologist I reckon this virus will be a permanent feature until we get a vaccine although I have been surprised by the lack of noise about using antiviral drugs. I thought the comment above about malarial and hiv drugs interesting and would like to know more.
Good thinks about this
NIH clinical trial of remdesivir to treat COVID-19 begins
 

JumbleDuck

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I think the problem is lead time planning. It’s not unreasonable to keep a September event on “simmer”. What matters is the cut off date for commitments on infrastructure and the like and that could be anytime.

Absolutely. Some events I attend have been cancelled months in advance and some others, including some I run. are hanging on because late cancellation will be fine.
 

ryanroberts

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Too quick to work at normal pharma/regulator pace but there are now 3 studies demonstrating efficacy of a quinine derivative.

Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin as a treatment of COVID-19.pdf

Particularly interesting if you are of a practical sort of mindset and don't mind a little experimentation at home:

Further works are also warranted to determine if these compounds could be useful as chemoprophylaxis to prevent the transmission of the virus, especially for healthcare workers.
 

PHN

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As a microbiologist I reckon this virus will be a permanent feature until we get a vaccine although I have been surprised by the lack of noise about using antiviral drugs. I thought the comment above about malarial and hiv drugs interesting and would like to know more.

If you google it you will find research going on all over the world. The corona virus is not entirely new, but related to other known viruses for which medication does exist. One path of research is if existing drugs have an effect on corona like the above mentioned chloroquine.
 

stuartwineberg

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If you google it you will find research going on all over the world. The corona virus is not entirely new, but related to other known viruses for which medication does exist. One path of research is if existing drugs have an effect on corona like the above mentioned chloroquine.
Thank you. Yes, this thread prompted me to do some digging and the issue has now reached mainstream media but I appreciate your comment.
 
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