webcraft
Well-known member
.
Currently waiting on a weather window for a 3-day passage across Biscay and poring over the GRIBs, mostly via Windy.
The European model regularly shows 5 knots or more higher wind speeds, but it is the gust forecasts that I find most alarming. ECMWF is regularly showing gust speeds ten or fifteen knots higher than GFS, making all the difference between setting off and not setting off. 25 knot gusts yes, 35 knot gusts no thank you very much.
Is this a regular feature of the models, and which one should I believe? Is the truth likely to be somewhere between the two?
Currently looking at Friday afternoon just off the coast here . . . GFS is 9kts gusting 11, ECMWF is 19kts gusting 27 and this discrepancy is fairly standard for the period and area I am looking at. It makes a nonsense of passage planning, and frankly I wish I had never discovered there were two models.
- W
Currently waiting on a weather window for a 3-day passage across Biscay and poring over the GRIBs, mostly via Windy.
The European model regularly shows 5 knots or more higher wind speeds, but it is the gust forecasts that I find most alarming. ECMWF is regularly showing gust speeds ten or fifteen knots higher than GFS, making all the difference between setting off and not setting off. 25 knot gusts yes, 35 knot gusts no thank you very much.
Is this a regular feature of the models, and which one should I believe? Is the truth likely to be somewhere between the two?
Currently looking at Friday afternoon just off the coast here . . . GFS is 9kts gusting 11, ECMWF is 19kts gusting 27 and this discrepancy is fairly standard for the period and area I am looking at. It makes a nonsense of passage planning, and frankly I wish I had never discovered there were two models.
- W