Always think what if

[Csfisher]

Main purpose of this thread is to share the video I just watched - but highlights a key point to me.

When sailing or watch keeping you always need to be playing the 'what if' game.

What if someone fell overboard right now?
What if my engine were to fail right now?
What if I hit a container or whale right now?
Etc.

And come up with a plan. Especially when near land or in a marina.

As demonstrated here, things can always go wrong. Sailing ship Cisne Blanco collides with bridge after engine failure.

For example, when near land I like to make sure my anchor is not lashed and it's available to be lowered at immediate notice. If I lost my engine and wasn't able to sail, I could use my anchor to prevent drifting on a Lee shore.

When in our near the marina I keep a loose fender as a roving fender so if all goes wrong I can at least make sure attempt to fend off better. Same reason I favour putting fenders out on both sides despite seeing some people do only one side when when they know what side they're berthing to.

Rescue equipment such as steps, binoculars, hand-held radios, first aid kits, sharp knives, flares, bungs etc are no use of they're at three back of a locker and not easy to reach in a hurry and in the dark. Every crew member should also know where they are and how to use them in case you're incapacitated.

In the case of Cisne Blanco, without commenting on anything subject to investigation - questions you should be asking is if their anchor was available for immediate use, and was the tug under powered for the size of the vessel and rate of tidal stream?

It's a terrible shame and I hope the damage isn't too severe. A friend of mine was the navigator on that ship a few years back, and when I went onboard in France it is a beautiful beautiful ship and very majestic under sail.

 

[Csfisher]

Video

Sinks her tug (girding)

 

[dankilb]

Blimey. Sobering stuff.

 

[davidpbo]

I do think people need to think "What If" and make plans to mitigate the imagined situations but not dwell on things that could go wrong all the time.

 

[Csfisher]

I do think people need to think "What If" and make plans to mitigate the imagined situations but not dwell on things that could go wrong all the time.

Of course they shouldn't dwell, nor should they avoid all risk completely. But as you say, have a bail out plan In mind. Eventually enough experience will mean you can react instinctively and not have to think about a lot of the eventualities.

 

[Slowboat35]

Good post Cs. I like it.

I hope your low post count bears no relation to your sailing experience, I suspect not. It is plain obvious that it doesn't reflect any lack of common sense.

I was trained as a helicopter pilot and the be-all and end-all of that albeit military training philosophy was "always be ready at an instant, for anything". Also, and I think importantly, a clear understnding of the (vast) difference between the realities of "unexpected" and "unanticipated".
It becomes a habit never to be much surprised by a surprise. Some say it's because you're always anticipating the worst. No, just never trusting to 100% best...)
Others suggest it is because when you know what to do in all credible situations you have plan in hand.
And an ability to cuff it when all the above goes pear-shaped and get away with it!

There is a lot of common 'mindset' between flying and sailing and thought processes of the OP are very much on those lines.

Thinking done in that manner will resolve most problems on land and sea.

 

[bitbaltic]

I do think people need to think "What If" and make plans to mitigate the imagined situations but not dwell on things that could go wrong all the time.

Agree with that, I used to always be planning for worst-case scenario (with a safety background in offshore oil snd gas) but eventually I concluded that it was disproportionate for family sailing and relaxed about it. Concentrating on serious but unlikely scenarios wasn’t what SWMBO wanted to do on a Saturday morning. The boat is well equipped, we know what to do, we are coastal family cruising and although there have of course been one or two ‘what next skipper’ moments in ten years realistically we have never been near the edge of safe operation.

 

[Csfisher]

Good post Cs. I like it.

I hope your low post count bears no relation to your sailing experience, I suspect not. It is plain obvious that it doesn't reflect any lack of common sense.

I was trained as a helicopter pilot and the be-all and end-all of that albeit military training philosophy was "always be ready at an instant, for anything". Also, and I think importantly, a clear understnding of the (vast) difference between the realities of "unexpected" and "unanticipated".
It becomes a habit never to be much surprised by a surprise. Some say it's because you're always anticipating the worst. No, just never trusting to 100% best...)
Others suggest it is because when you know what to do in all credible situations you have plan in hand.
And an ability to cuff it when all the above goes pear-shaped and get away with it!

There is a lot of common 'mindset' between flying and sailing and thought processes of the OP are very much on those lines.

Thinking done in that manner will resolve most problems on land and sea.

New to the forums but not Sailing. I don't consider myself as experienced as most on here; I've only been seriously sailing for the last 10 years or so. I did grow up on a sailboat age 2-5 when my Family sailed from South Africa to the Med; however I would be surprised if I remember much if at all of that. I got the odd opportunity to spend a day or two on my family's boats growing up as a teenager; but only really recently have I pursued it myself.

I am however a professional mariner on Ships generally around 10,000 tonnes doing a variety of work but my specialised field is Navigation and Seamanship so I do know a fair bit in that regard combined with my recent sailing experience means I do at least have a head start.

 

[ianat182]

The fender is also useful to use for a MOB to give them some buoyancy to swim to and hang onto if , as probable, it will take time to drop sails or get back to their position under power.
This attitude is risk assessment on the go and sensible in my opinion. This and other small preparations-'in case' is probably better than saying afterwards" what if I had thought of doing....."

ianat182

 

[Laminar Flow]

The fender is also useful to use for a MOB to give them some buoyancy to swim to and hang onto if , as probable, it will take time to drop sails or get back to their position under power.
This attitude is risk assessment on the go and sensible in my opinion. This and other small preparations-'in case' is probably better than saying afterwards" what if I had thought of doing....."

ianat182

When sailing offshore, I would point out to the crew that at 6kts the boat travels 200m in one minute. In that kind of wind your fender will drift faster than someone in full clothing can swim. At 200m it might also be difficult to spot a head among the waves.
Anyone on deck should wear a life-jacket and be strapped in with a lifeline & harness. Safe your fenders for docking.

Thankfully, I have never lost anyone overboard. But a friend of mine was helping deliver a cat to the Caribbean, when one of the crew stepped down the Ester Williams' boarding ramp to fetch water with a bucket on a lanyard. At 8kts under spinnaker it whipped him clean off the boat. It took them 30min to clear the spinnaker, start the engines and motor up against the trades to find him, the lucky ba...rd.

 

[Roberto]

From time to time, try and enjoy "what if everything is going fine"

 

[Csfisher]

When sailing offshore, I would point out to the crew that at 6kts the boat travels 200m in one minute. In that kind of wind your fender will drift faster than someone in full clothing can swim. At 200m it might also be difficult to spot a head among the waves.
Anyone on deck should wear a life-jacket and be strapped in with a lifeline & harness. Safe your fenders for docking.

Thankfully, I have never lost anyone overboard. But a friend of mine was helping deliver a cat to the Caribbean, when one of the crew stepped down the Ester Williams' boarding ramp to fetch water with a bucket on a lanyard. At 8kts under spinnaker it whipped him clean off the boat. It took them 30min to clear the spinnaker, start the engines and motor up against the trades to find him, the lucky ba...rd.

Yes that is a very good point indeed, if on deck on your own you really ought to be connected to the boat with a safety line - one that will prevent you falling out rather than simply pull you along in the water.
I always feel more comfortable with my lifejacket also, even though I am a confident swimmer; if I am unconscious it will save my life but not only that it has a luminous yellow inflation bag which has a light inside it to aid spotting me.

I also opted for bright red foul weather gear rather than the more fashionable black or white gear.

True story - at work, my Ship was called in to conduct SAR for a diver that was missing. We had two ships, three lifeboats, and four helicopters assigned to the efforts, and it was only when we chanced upon the man we spotted him. He was about 400 yards off the bow and only then did I THINK I could see something.
This diver had a huge inflatable device which extended in the air (see attached). If it wasn't for this device, we NEVER would have found him I don't think. So just think how difficult your head on it's own is to spot even from the bridge of a Ship which has a considerable height of eye advantage over someone in the cockpit of a sail boat at the waterline almost.

 

[Buck Turgidson]

From time to time, try and enjoy "what if everything is going fine"

Make a cup of tea.

As another from an aviation background, "Threat Identification" as we've taken to calling it these days is a major factor is safety. And "What if?" is a great way to do it.

 

[Roberto]

As another from an aviation background, "Threat Identification" as we've taken to calling it these days is a major factor is safety. And "What if?" is a great way to do it.

Aviation standards are often brought forward, not sure they fit with pleasure sailing.
You want to try and get as near as possible to 0% risk? Of course aviation standards are gold dust.
You want to enjoy some leisurely sailing? Not sure going through a 100-page safety check list before leaving the mooring for a day sail is compatible. Pretty much as you would not take off with a 747 full of passengers with a big smile "ho-hoo now let's have some fun"
Where to put the needle in between is not so automatic, I think.

 

[Kilo]

Same incident from a different angle
В Эквадоре врезался в пешеходный мост учебный парусник ВМС Бразилии Cisne Branco

 

[Csfisher]

Zero risk is not the goal, there is always risk. You can however mitigate the risk by taking simple precautions. If you have a life raft, that's you mitigating the risk of sinking. If you have an epirb, that too is another mitigation. Carry bungs? That's you mitigating the risk of a hole or busted through yhull fitting. Flares? You get the point.

My other point, is that too many boats I've crewed on have the Bungs etc thrown at the back of a locker behind a bunch of stuff. Similarly I've sailed with owners who don't even know how to use the flares or similarly don't know how they'd pull a 100kg man out of the water if they were unconscious.

On a day to day though, it doesn't harm to think through possible scenarios in your head to see how you would react, if it then ever does happen in the heat of the moment you'll be able to react
Quicker and more calmly having run through the scenario in your head before.

Some scenarios ideally you should practice to build a more instinctive muscle memory, such as a man overboard. But others are more theoretical.

The rest isn't exactly a long winded exercise. Just being conscious of other risks, and having in your mid How'd you'd bail out or react shouldn't detract from your sailing experience.

I'm not for one minute suggesting you need a check list, although I did sail with one chap who actually did have a two side laminated check list to ensure the right sea cocks were open, levels checked, speed log inserted, sail ties removed etc before sailing and that everything was correctly stowed afterwards. It isn't a terrible idea, saves him the risk of forgetting something and gives him piece of mind.

 

[vic008]

Sometimes think, as wondering around marinas, what would one do to get out if you were to fall in? Are there occassional ladders, would you need a passerby to assist, etc?

 

[Stemar]

I'm not going to swear to it, but I'm pretty sure I've seen figures that suggest that more leisure sailors die falling off pontoons on their way back from the pub than at sea. Having been on some seriously wobbly, poorly lit pontoons, that doesn't surprise me too much.

As for What Ifs, I've long believed that if you've only got a plan B you're already in trouble.

 

[TLouth7]

When sailing or watch keeping you always need to be playing the 'what if' game.

What if someone fell overboard right now?
What if my engine were to fail right now?
What if I hit a container or whale right now?

I strongly disagree. Like most here I sail for pleasure, and most of my sailing is in familiar waters on a familiar boat.

The nice thing about yachts is that (excluding engines) they are pretty low tech, which means there is little to go unexpectedly wrong. Also they move slowly which means you always have time to react to unfolding situations, and they struggle to do much damage.

One situation where you don't have time is on the final approach to a marina berth. But if you do fluff it and find yourself pinned against other boats you will discover that you are fine, and now you do have time to calmly decide how to extricate yourself.

In 20 years of sailing my yacht I have never had: a failed seacock, a man-overboard, a blown sail, a dismasting, a lightning strike, a sudden loss of GPS, collision with a container, or any of the other calamities some on this site would expect me to constantly mitigate against. And even with my distinct lack of preparation for any of those possibilities I sincerely doubt that any (with the possible exception of MOB in bad weather) would result in a loss of life.

 

[geem]

I strongly disagree. Like most here I sail for pleasure, and most of my sailing is in familiar waters on a familiar boat.

The nice thing about yachts is that (excluding engines) they are pretty low tech, which means there is little to go unexpectedly wrong. Also they move slowly which means you always have time to react to unfolding situations, and they struggle to do much damage.

One situation where you don't have time is on the final approach to a marina berth. But if you do fluff it and find yourself pinned against other boats you will discover that you are fine, and now you do have time to calmly decide how to extricate yourself.

In 20 years of sailing my yacht I have never had: a failed seacock, a man-overboard, a blown sail, a dismasting, a lightning strike, a sudden loss of GPS, collision with a container, or any of the other calamities some on this site would expect me to constantly mitigate against. And even with my distinct lack of preparation for any of those possibilities I sincerely doubt that any (with the possible exception of MOB in bad weather) would result in a loss of life.

You don't say how many miles you have sailed in 20 years. A hundred miles or 100,000nm puts you in a different risk category. My mileage is towards the middle over the last 20 years. I to have never had any of those calamities but I have been prepared for them