Recent content by franksingleton

Thank you.👍

My 60,000+ falls a bit short, I admit. The forecaster has very few words to use in any forecast for it to be understandable. There is no way in which many forecasts can accurately cover a 24 hour period for a sea or coastal area. I am sure that you are well aware that the wind is often far more...

Do you know who is running AI weather models? The only one I know right now is ECMWF. They used 40 years of their own historical data, ERA5, for the learning process and their own, IFS data analyses for their trial runs. They are still only replicating a subset of their operational data but...

There is much truth in the last two posts. From my perspective as both a user and one-time provider of forecasts, it is always rather more shaded. Yes, small scale topographical effects can be modelled but they can be critically dependent on the large scale pattern. A small error or change in...

He was not quite correct. The shipping forecast must warn of the worst that might happen, while giving a broad general description of the weather over all. Also, it has a strict word limit of 330 word, not counting the phrase, “Issued by the Met Office on behalf of the Maritime and Coastguard...

Have you ever actually made a cross Channel passage or sailed for a few hours along the coast? If you have then you will know how much the wind actually does vary in space and time.

Any views on Prepaid eSIM Europe for travel - Unlimited Data - Holafly or other suggestions for roaming Europe?

A forecast saying F5 or 6, locally 7, perhaps F8 at times is perfectly sensible. Looking for ensemble examples for my Reeds WHB, 3rd edition, I looked at an AROME 16 member ensemble. For one point at 18 hours, the deterministic forecast was F6. The ensemble had speeds up to middle of F8 and down...

If you are talking about sea area or coastal forecasts broadcast by the BBC, HMCG, NAVTEX bear in mind the strict word limits. The BBC Shipping forecast has io be capable of being read in 3 minutes, 330 words for the whole broadcast. It has to be vey broad brush. It has to mention any severe...

ECMWF and the Met Office are both looking at AI seriously. The Met Office in collaboration with the Turing institute. Initial ECMWF results are promising but it is still early days. As I understand it, the starting point is the IFS analysis and the learning is based on ECMWF ERA5 data covering...

I was really just reflecting thst it is an odd world. There is a strong correlation between CO2 and global temperature. The scientific approach is to say that that suggests a physical connection. They want to know why. Therefore, they study the physical processes, develop a model, show why the...

I would have expected AI to be very positive about climate change. It must have vast amounts of CO2 data both in recent years as well as for millions of years ago. It must have masses of temperature data both instrumental and before. It must have masses if data about fuel usage. There can only...

Well, perhaps I should get up earlier in the morning. Lustyd was ahead of me re AI. ECMWF, the Met Office and others are studying AI and ML. I had taken my eye off the ball. There are, of course, some problems. Resolution of current AI models is not as good as NWP, I had not thought of that...

Maybe, if you had precisely the same initial data. But, we know that small differences in initial conditions can lead to significantly different end results. Meteorological statistics describe what has happened in the past. They have not been good predictors for the future. That has always been...

Like anyone deeply into a new and developing conceptual system you underestimate the problems. AI is about developing logic based on experience. In its simplest form it will come down to a question of “if this happens then that will follow.” I realise thst is a gross simplification. In the...